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Thread: When will Disneyland Re-Open? - speculation incouraged

  1. #26

    Recent studies of individuals antibodies in Santa Clara and LA County indicate the number of those infected is perhaps 50 to 80 times higher than initially projected when lockdowns were put in place. The studies were conducted by Stanford and USC. If true, the good news to be gleaned from that is the mortality rate is also abysmally lower than projected.

    If these preventive measures save just one life, though, then all affected should be thankful, their livelihoods be damned. I just hope the 100,000 Disney employees furloughed a day ago would concur.

    Your attention, please. The Disneyland Limited now leaving for a grand circle tour of the Magic Kingdom. Aboaaard!

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  3. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by leota's necklace View Post
    Dave, don't get me started on the "folks need to get back to work so they need to assume some risk" argument. People should not have to risk death, or killing others, to support themselves.

    Comparisons to car accidents et al will be ignored as they are not the same thing and present a straw man.
    If you re-read, (I know it's long, so I'll forgive you for not wanting to), I suggested it was not possible to force all people to tell them they could not make any attempt to go back to work to be able to make a living again. Saying don't force the whole population to stay home is not the same thing as saying force the whole population to go back to work.

    No where did I say it was necessary to force people that are high risk or feel they are risking others they live with, etc. to go back to work in a situation they are uncomfortable with.

    Now, how to draw that line in a long term sense, I don't have a solution for. I don't own/run a business, so I can't say how long might be reasonable to leave people on a furlough with the intent that someday their job will still be there for them when it's safe to return.

    Not sure where I brought up car accidents in that post either, but ok, whatever....
    -Dave

  4. #28
    Fun is wherever you find it... olegc's Avatar
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    My daughter worked on the Stanford study and we made the same comment about not as fatal. Her response was "Yes, that's correct. And that's already been shown in countries that had very good testing (South Korea). But even if it's not "more fatal" than other viruses based on death rate, it doesn't change the fact that so many are dying"

    She's a PhD candidate for cancer research but first time helping with a testing study.

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    "[Disneyland] has that thing - the imagination, and the feeling of happy excitement - I knew when I was a kid." - Walt Disney

  5. #29
    Healthy and Happy june1st1997's Avatar
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    Olegc,

    It is amazing to hear that right now it looks much less fatal that initially thought. That is fantastic news. I am hoping the antibody tests are available soon to the general public. I have lungs that don't drain as well as they should and this thing could be devastating for me. (I HAVE TO get a flu shot each year and in fact got the Pneumococol Pneumonia vaccine in my 30's.) Which is why I have been in my house since 3/11. Believe me, if I get the antibody test and it is confirmed I have them, I will the first person to be out an about.

    What I am curious about when you bring up South Korea is, what is the general health of their population. In addition to testing being available and isolation as needed, I wonder about heart disease, diabetes, and obesity there. It is my understanding that those things factor into the mortality rate of Covid19.

    Please thank your daughter for her work. As both a cancer survivor and someone deathly (pun intended) afraid of this virus... I deeply appreciate the work she and her colleagues are doing.

    Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn't

    High School here she comes!

  6. #30
    Fun is wherever you find it... olegc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by june1st1997 View Post
    Olegc,

    It is amazing to hear that right now it looks much less fatal that initially thought. That is fantastic news. I am hoping the antibody tests are available soon to the general public. I have lungs that don't drain as well as they should and this thing could be devastating for me. (I HAVE TO get a flu shot each year and in fact got the Pneumococol Pneumonia vaccine in my 30's.) Which is why I have been in my house since 3/11. Believe me, if I get the antibody test and it is confirmed I have them, I will the first person to be out an about.

    What I am curious about when you bring up South Korea is, what is the general health of their population. In addition to testing being available and isolation as needed, I wonder about heart disease, diabetes, and obesity there. It is my understanding that those things factor into the mortality rate of Covid19.

    Please thank your daughter for her work. As both a cancer survivor and someone deathly (pun intended) afraid of this virus... I deeply appreciate the work she and her colleagues are doing.
    I only know about SK based on what I've read. and Nate Silver's 538 site (statistical analysis) mentions that the Santa Clara study didn't consider some other factors that could make the numbers not as impressive.

    All in all - as it pertains to returning to anything we used to do (including the parks) this is all so fluid and variable its tough to get a good handle on anything. We'll see what the experiments in Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina create in the next few weeks given that they plan to open up some businesses this weekend (including movie theaters and gyms). The Governor of Georgia expects businesses to be responsible to ensure people use social distancing etiquette in their stores. there wont be any issues initially and you'll see cheerleaders. We have to wait to see if there is an increase in cases. If not - then it may be good news in the next couple of months for businesses. However, given that theme parks require you to touch a lot of things (handle bars, queue railings, waiting in line for food) they'd have to staff up significantly for immediate constant cleaning and managing flow to just allow a reduced number of guests to attend. The cost model may not be so good for Disney. I don't even know if "some money is better than no money" works here.
    "[Disneyland] has that thing - the imagination, and the feeling of happy excitement - I knew when I was a kid." - Walt Disney

  7. #31

    Sorry Dave, don't take the "car accident" comment personally. I wanted to note that generally for future posters.


  8. #32

    Anyway. I'm not talking about force. People should be able to make healthy decisions that consider the greater good without worrying about where their next meal is coming from. I'm talking about the greater failure of capitalism as a system, but we can set that aside 'cause THAT is a whole 'nother thread.

    I think it's dangerous to talk about "high risk" populations and base decisions about returning to work on that, because we know there are asymptomatic carriers out there. We know the virus takes weeks to present. I can guarantee that, at some point, someone who is "low risk" will interact with someone who is "high risk" and endanger them.


  9. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by TulaBelle View Post
    Hi folks, I work in a grocery store, we are taking precautions sanitizing frequently, but there's still a risk. I could sit home and not be paid, try to get some sort of assistance, but that's just not me. I feel there are people out there who need that assistance more than I do. Do I actually feel safe from this virus? No, I don't, but I'm doing what I can to be safe.
    Now I don't see near the volume of people Disneyland does, but I have to think there are cast members who feel the same way I do. Do the best we can to be safe. I feel the Disney company will test different types/methods/strategies in the Asian parks, before making a plan for the U.S. parks. My hope is the parks will reopen before the fall/holiday season begins, but I agree with many of you, the parks will not be the same ones we knew.
    My mother was infected with covid19 from her nursing home. She has made an amazing recovery, it's a miracle after so many younger people did not. She is still positive and is in isolation, but she's doing so much better than any of us dreamed she would. I haven't seen her since March 13, but I get daily reports. Her dementia makes conversations difficult.
    In talking with the doctors and nurses I've learned covid19 can exist in your body for up to 30 days with no symptoms. That is the scariest thing for me. You feel fine, no symptoms, no idea. That's the most dangerous person. I don't know how Disney could protect us from that person.
    ((Big hugs to you)). Keeping your mom and your family in my prayers.

  10. #34

    Thank you all for the kind words, they help ease some of the strain.
    Eventually the world will reopen and we will all have to decide for ourselves the risks we are willing to take in order to have a "normal" life. All we can do is make a choice with the best information available, and be considerate of others in making that choice. That is my hope, when the time comes, everyone chooses for the good of everyone.


  11. #35

    Great conversation and it's refreshing to see conversation about the situation without people getting heated. I have been on a couple of forums where people just get out of control. It's half expected on such a passionate topic.

    I have a vested interest in both California and Texas. Originally from the Sacramento area and lived there until about 8 years ago. All my family is still there. My wife still has her business there. She is a hairstylist. But the way things are progressing in CA and in my area outside of Houston are on two different time lines. Here in Texas, we are in phase 1 of opening. State parks were opened up this (with masks and distancing required). Non essential surgery was given the green light since many of the hospitals are sitting empty right now where this not a COVID-19 concentration. All non-essential retail businesses were allowed to open up back if they could support curbside pick up or to go orders. The company I work for has been working from home since March 16th. We just got an update yesterday that starting May 18th, we are going to start migration back into the office. A first designated group the week of May 18th, another group the following week, and the final wave the last week of May. But we are still going to have a lot of employees rotating working in and out of the office during different weeks. Of course we are in Texas where sports are huge. Some of the baseball organizations are putting together plans to open facilities at the end of May beginning of June while limiting the number of players together at one time. There are some tournaments that are saying they are going on as scheduled in July/August but have communicated the sanitizing, distancing, and other such guidelines that will be followed at the tournaments.

    My wife who still has her hair business back in Cali (flies back every 5 weeks or so), has a lot of her clients reaching out to her asking when she is coming back out. Obviously she is watching how the events in California unfold. She knows the distancing guidelines may be an issue. So she is looking at alternate solutions to where she can work in area with only her clients. She knows that her time in California will also increase because she will have to schedule each client separately and then disinfect the area after each client. So there are people who are wanting these types of services and willing to go out as soon as the restrictions start lifting.

    I really hope that Disneyland and WDW can figure out something, but I am not holding my breath. I have already had one WDW trip canceled and have another one tentatively scheduled for September. But if the experience is going to be limited and will cause more fear and hassle than it's worth, may be best just to postpone anyway until you can go with no worries and have that escape from the real world. That is why most of us go anyway, escaping the hustle and bustle of everyday life.

    I do also think watching what happens with the parks overseas will give us a sign on how things will open here. I think I saw some pics of markers being placed in queues telling people where to stand so that they can keep their distance in line.

    Next WDW trip, August 28-31, 2021! Can't come soon enough.

  12. #36

    Some interesting and well-illustrated research from UW on what happens if folks visit "just one friend ".

    http://statnet.org/COVID-JustOneFriend/

    Tl;dr (shouldn't be a problem since there are pretty pictures) if one person from a household visits one friend, over 70 percent of households are then networked and are a vector for transmission.


  13. #37

    Even if the Parks were to reopen with distancing measures in place, I wouldn't go. That would require that I trust other parkgoers to follow those guidelines. Folks, people in my grocery store can't manage to stay 6 feet away from me in a line that is marked on the floor for them. People at Disneyland regularly step in front of a heavy, clanging trolley with a whole live draft horse in front of it. Children lick handrails. Parents stuff ice cream bars in kids' shoes so they are tall enough to ride Space Mountain, and change diapers on restaurant tables. Folks will not be able to manage precautions. Especially since I can guarantee that at least a few of those visitors will be people who "don't believe in science" or want to flaunt their disregard of health warnings because, I dunno, they think it makes them edgy or something. I'll wait it out, thanks.


  14. #38
    Healthy and Happy june1st1997's Avatar
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    Very well said Leota.

    We have decided over here that we will not return to the parks until there is a vaccine, we have gotten the vaccine and 2 weeks incubation period has passed. It's that simple for us. We have been 100's of times. I will miss going, but that will make our return even more exciting.

    I respect that everyone has there own threshold for risk/reward. If someone wants to go to the park opening day - more power to them. It's just not essential to us.

    Over here we are just focusing on essential for the time being.

    Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn't

    High School here she comes!

  15. #39

    I really want to get tested someday to see if I had it.

    We were in the park for two days right before it was closed. After we got home I was not feeling the best, run down and sore. I also lost all sense of taste for almost 3 days. I tired a spicy Mexican dinner that just tasted like nothing. Never had anything like that in my entire life. I took my temperature a lot and never had a fever.

    I have since learned that the lack of taste thing is reported by a lot of people with it.

    Just wonder how many of us had it and didn't even know it. I hear lots of people get it and never get sick.

    If it's like chicken pox where you don't get again then you may not need a vaccine if you have already had it.

    Maybe at my next physical they will have a test (crossing fingers)

    Just saw a report that sunlight and warmer temperature kills the virus pretty quickly too. That is good news for doing things outside!!!

    "If you can Dream it you can Do IT." Walt Disney


  16. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by sjhanksaz View Post
    I really want to get tested someday to see if I had it.
    Same here. We went to Disney World for Marathon Weekend and traveled to Duke University immediately after. A few days after getting home I was sitting in my recliner one night and all of a sudden I couldn't catch my breath. I was really having to take deep breaths each time I took a breath. I started to freak out a little. My wife even asked if I was having a heart attack. The next day the symptoms continued and then I also developed a dry cough and some aches. I went to to urgent care that day. This was right around the time people were starting to get concerned about the virus. They had signs up at the urgent care about the corona virus and travel. When I saw the doctor he asked me if I had traveled recently. When I told him Disney World and to North Carolina he kind of gave me a strange look that I will never forget. Gave me a flu and strep test. Both came back negative. He diagnosed it as walking pneumonia but said he couldn't rule out bronchitis. Gave me prescriptions for a z-pack and albuterol and sent me on my way. My wife thinks it was the virus due to the trouble breathing and dry cough. I will definitely take the antibody test as soon as it is readily available.
    Next WDW trip, August 28-31, 2021! Can't come soon enough.

  17. #41
    Registered User moofeet's Avatar
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    I honestly just hope that the Crab in Pirates is doing well!!


  18. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by moofeet View Post
    I honestly just hope that the Crab in Pirates is doing well!!
    Hope we don't have to call him the Coronacrab
    "If you can Dream it you can Do IT." Walt Disney


  19. #43
    Speculation encouraged

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox8.co...ntil-2021/amp/


    John Hodulik has plenty to speculate, for what its worth.
    Your attention, please. The Disneyland Limited now leaving for a grand circle tour of the Magic Kingdom. Aboaaard!

  20. #44
    Fun is wherever you find it... olegc's Avatar
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    Well - my wild speculation is whether Disney will have to adjust the passholder rules again to gain some sort of revenue for 2021 fiscal year (starting in October). If Jan 1 2021 is the opening that means I get over 9 months added to my pass AND since I paid renewal I won't pay again till 2022. Yay for me but can the company survive on zero gate revenue from passholders for that long.

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    "[Disneyland] has that thing - the imagination, and the feeling of happy excitement - I knew when I was a kid." - Walt Disney

  21. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by olegc View Post
    Well - my wild speculation is whether Disney will have to adjust the passholder rules again to gain some sort of revenue for 2021 fiscal year (starting in October). If Jan 1 2021 is the opening that means I get over 9 months added to my pass AND since I paid renewal I won't pay again till 2022. Yay for me but can the company survive on zero gate revenue from passholders for that long.

    Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk
    Same here.

    But we had kind of bought the tickets during the holidays so we could hit them again the next year. This timing will be a little bit of a bummer for us.

    I kind of home California lets construction go to work soon. At least they could finish the haunted mansion updates and continue with other building and maintenance projects around the park. Maybe this is the perfect time to redo tomorrow land. Re-do those people mover tracks or remove them......
    "If you can Dream it you can Do IT." Walt Disney


  22. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by sjhanksaz View Post
    Same here.

    But we had kind of bought the tickets during the holidays so we could hit them again the next year. This timing will be a little bit of a bummer for us.

    I kind of home California lets construction go to work soon. At least they could finish the haunted mansion updates and continue with other building and maintenance projects around the park. Maybe this is the perfect time to redo tomorrow land. Re-do those people mover tracks or remove them......
    I believe Construction is an "essential business" but that doesn't mean that there wouldn't be bad PR for 'forcing' construction workers to build something that is completely non-essential. Plus, I can't even imagine how hard it would be for Disney to justify spending money on nonessential projects when there is currently little/no revenue coming in.

  23. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by currence View Post
    I believe Construction is an "essential business" but that doesn't mean that there wouldn't be bad PR for 'forcing' construction workers to build something that is completely non-essential. Plus, I can't even imagine how hard it would be for Disney to justify spending money on nonessential projects when there is currently little/no revenue coming in.
    You have to spend money to make money. I think they would actually save a lot of cost doing it when the park is closed rather then have to do it in small bites while the park is full of people.

    I am in construction too and luckily in AZ it's essential so I have been still working.
    "If you can Dream it you can Do IT." Walt Disney


  24. #48
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    I think Disney spending money on construction now is perfect for them. They can get it done faster (assuming it is easier when the park is shut down to do projects), cheaper (because it is faster - again assuming), and creates good PR in that they are employing workers who would otherwise be out of work during this time (assuming their work conditions and distancing are using good practices and not forcing unsafe conditions with the virus).

    So yeah, then when the parks do open, they can have a big 'Look at all the new and updated things!' marketing push.

    Especially if they can address some of the reliability issues with RotR and also do the Indie refurb now rather than later.


  25. #49

    I think it could be good for them UNLESS there were to be an outbreak among the workers, which they'd obviously not have complete control over. Then the bad publicity would tidal wave right in. I don't know that they'd want to risk workers' health or the associated PR issues they'd face if there were to be an outbreak. I think they'll wait for California to lift "shelter in place" or ease other restrictions, which doesn't seem to be on the immediate horizon.


  26. #50

    We’re apparently waiting for a vaccine before life can resume.


    also, BREAKING: there may never be a vaccine.


    This should end well.

    Your attention, please. The Disneyland Limited now leaving for a grand circle tour of the Magic Kingdom. Aboaaard!

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