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Thread: When will Disneyland Re-Open? - speculation incouraged

  1. #1

    When will Disneyland Re-Open? - speculation incouraged

    So anyone taking bets on the new re-opening?

    Mid May?

    or do you think it will be in June some time?????

    "If you can Dream it you can Do IT." Walt Disney


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  3. #2

    Disneyland? I think they will be lucky if they are able to qualify for the "limited with social distancing" reopening by the end of the summer. Downtown Disney may open before then, which will give Disneyland an opportunity to test some of their potential security measures (i.e. temperature scanners, appropriately spaced tables, everyone wearing a mask, etc) before then.

    Unless Disney replaces half or more of their employees with robots, or just doesn't reopen a ton of rides, it will be hard to reopen Disneyland while maintaining 6' of space at all times between all people. Some rides are more conducive to reopening that others.

    If Disney decided to reopen in waves, I could see them being able to open the park for guests to experience:
    Splash Mountain, Winnie the Pooh, Millennium Falcon, It's a Small World, Roger Rabbit's Cartoon Spin, Indy, most of Fantasyland: 1 family group per ride vehicle
    Haunted Mansion: same, though the elevator ride/queue could be problematic - maybe have groups stand on squares 6' apart during the elevator ride and release them one at a time to the next queue.
    Buzz lightyear, autopia: with proper decontamination procedures between guests

    Harder to reopen:
    Pirates, Big Thunder, Space Mountain, Star Tours, Matterhorn, Submarines, Disneyland Rail Road, Jungle Cruise, Tiki Room, Canoes, Rise of the Resistance, Mark Twain, Columbia, Storybook land, Monorail - basically all rides that put you in close proximity to strangers and would likely be too inefficient to run as single family experiences.
    Tarzan's Tree House, Tom Sawyer's Island, most of ToonTown - social distancing could be maintained, but attractions are designed for hands-on exploration and could be too difficulty to properly sanitize between guests.
    All parades, shows, fireworks & meet & greets - too hard to maintain 6' of space between guests and/or performers

    But if the park reopens with less than half of the regular rides/attractions, and want to maintain proper distancing, it will also need to greatly reduce the number of guests inside the park - which could be the natural by-product of the time but could also mean that we are seeing New Year's Eve type capacity restrictions for a nearly vacant park.

    I hope I'm wrong, but listening to Gov. Newsom's press conference yesterday regarding the six things CA will need before we can start even limited re-openings, it seems like it will be a long time before CA allows people to hang out within 6 feet of strangers, which will likely mean that when Disneyland does re-open, it will be dramatically different than when it closed.


  4. #3

    I think it's not mid-May (for either CA of FL).

    I don't have a date prediction, but I think it highly depends on what happens after other things are re-opened. If malls and other gathering spaces successfully open and we don't see any resurgence around a month or so afterwards, that might help indicate Disney Parks and other such venues can be opened with relative safety.

    The 6 foot thing if it ends up being the absolute rule for any significant length of time will be the death of many other businesses also. The guy from "Bar Rescue" has been mentioning that for several weeks now. Restaurants and Bars are not viable on an economic model that your maximum turnover of the seats on any given day is reduced by a huge percentage because you can't sit anyone closer than 6 feet from one another. The rent/mortgages don't go down by a factor of 60% if you reduce your turnover capacity by 60%.

    Movie theaters: 6 foot means you can sell maybe one ticket for every 15-35 seats(I came up with that thinking 2-3 seats to each side of you, then either one or 2 empty rows both in front of and behind, based on seat size. So either 5x3=15 or 7x5=35)? That certainly isn't viable. Unless you multiply the ticket prices to account for the fewer sales, which is clearly unrealistic (though it would be something less than 15-35x (maybe close to half that), since the empty seats count for both you and your nearest neighbors) .

    Pretty much everything in Disney Parks (Restaurants, rides, you name it) would face a similar problem. Even in the Splash Mountain example describe by currence above, what about when the logs load or arrive back to unload. In addition to only putting one travel/family group in a log, do you also leave an empty one in between every one that has people in it? Otherwise the front of a log is certainly closer to the back of a log than 6 feet at the end, or if the ride has an issue and breaks down and they all jam up together while the problem is cleared (that never happens, right ) And as people scream as their log goes down the final drop, how long do you need to worry about droplets being in the air before the next group goes down the drop?

    I'm sure Disney is paying lots of people to think through all of this as we speak, but a lot of it is going to depend on how everyday life goes when things start to re-open. (As I type this, the mayor of LA was just on TV suggesting he doesn't see any gatherings of thousands of people happening anytime this year. That's a long time, and he really doesn't know at this point either, he needs to see how things play out too)

    -Dave

  5. #4
    Fun is wherever you find it... olegc's Avatar
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    If the governor has said at current practice we wouldnt see any large gatherings until late summer or fall - and thats if nothing changes. If there is a spike in cases for some reason that may be extended. And lots of other things need to be in place. Will Disneyland change ride seating? reduce capacity? reduce meal seating? Overall reduce and limit entry into the park? Is that worth it for them? IDK - not having fireworks parades or meet and greets is one thing - but trying to control staggered seating on an attraction - when historically they've been training people to "take all of the available space" - would mean a huge amount of operational changes, training, and monitoring.

    To me - I can't anticipate any opening until late fall if that. Even then - Holidays are always so hugely popular how would they control that? Only allow 10K people in at a time? that may create more ill will than just staying closed. It all depends on what happens with testing, health controls, maybe even some sort of identification that you are free of the virus. And those are not all controlled by Disney. I would love the park to come back in late summer/early fall. I cant realistically see that happen. (can you imagine if schools are still closed but Disneyland opens? ).

    "[Disneyland] has that thing - the imagination, and the feeling of happy excitement - I knew when I was a kid." - Walt Disney

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by olegc View Post
    ....................

    To me - I can't anticipate any opening until late fall if that. Even then - Holidays are always so hugely popular how would they control that? Only allow 10K people in at a time? that may create more ill will than just staying closed. It all depends on what happens with testing, health controls, maybe even some sort of identification that you are free of the virus. And those are not all controlled by Disney. I would love the park to come back in late summer/early fall. I cant realistically see that happen. (can you imagine if schools are still closed but Disneyland opens? ).
    That part I highlighted above reminded me of something my freshman year college roommate suggested nearly 30 years ago. During the obligatory first meeting for all residents of our floor with our Resident Advisor, a certain subject (I will not spell it out, this is a family site) of course comes up that is important to young people in a dorm situation, many of whom may be living away from parents for the first time. So anyway, my roommate suggested "there should be a card you can get that says you don't have any diseases". The RA pointed out the obvious - this is impossible since you could get your "card" and then participate in risky behavior 5 minutes later and no longer be "safe".

    The same applies here while this disease is out there(less the part about needing to participate in risky behavior). You could take a test today and be near someone 10 minutes later and be infected. So any sort of "ID card" is basically not realistic.

    As to Schools vs. Disneyland/World, I of course see your point. However, we are naturally approaching the end of what would be the normal school year on most places. So if schools are not re-opened during this year because they are not meeting the just announced criteria for "phase1/phase2/phase3", having a 2 month + period where they are not opening just because it's summer can't really be used as a "toll gate" to gauge the safety of large gatherings like sports arenas or theme parks.
    -Dave

  7. #6
    Fun is wherever you find it... olegc's Avatar
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    I think the info on any kind of ID may I dicta
    te immunity and not necessary lack of infection

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    "[Disneyland] has that thing - the imagination, and the feeling of happy excitement - I knew when I was a kid." - Walt Disney

  8. #7

    Even temperature stations and screening zones wouldn't catch everyone, because there are symptom-free carriers or someone who has just contracted something wouldn't have symptoms yet. But does that mean they don't try at all? I'm sure they'll do something to at least try to get the majority of ill people weeded out, because if they do nothing then some people will just go anyway, whether or not they feel sick. Some of that is selfishness or ignorance, but some of it is that there are folks who view Disney as a once-in-a-lifetime or at least a very infrequent opportunity and they're unwilling to miss out on a family vacation or fun experience. Whether or not that mindset will shift at all after a pandemic remains to be seen.

    I think I'll end up basing re-opening speculation on the Asia parks when they return. In theory they'd reopen before the American parks since COVID hit their countries first, and we'd likely be able to see some of what Disney implements through the openings of those parks.

    Also: Anyone want to take bets on whether the Hong Kong government just decides to keep that Disney property they're using?? I'd been following the government's battle with Disney over trying to buy that land, and I've been wondering that since Disney allowed them to use it.


  9. #8

    Around July 1, if not sooner. Each day the science is gaining ground on the hysteria. Average people want to live (and earn) a normal life and are willing to assume a normal amount of risk to do so. If the data continues to indicate that infections are far more widespread and asymptomatic, the government wont be able to hold the line on draconian measures.

    Disneylands reopening doesnt indicate that you should go or even want to go, nor does it indicate a guaranteed level of safety. If we wait for that, itll never reopen. Whether or not to visit the resort is a subjective decision based on your level of comfort, your underlying health, and your personal risk factors. If it stays closed through the summer and is forced to operate with extreme limits on crowds and staffing when it does, it wont be a park youll recognize nor will it be able to turn a profit.

    Your attention, please. The Disneyland Limited now leaving for a grand circle tour of the Magic Kingdom. Aboaaard!

  10. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by MidwayManiac View Post
    Around July 1, if not sooner. Each day the science is gaining ground on the hysteria. Average people want to live (and earn) a normal life and are willing to assume a normal amount of risk to do so. If the data continues to indicate that infections are far more widespread and asymptomatic, the government won’t be able to hold the line on draconian measures.

    Disneyland’s reopening doesn’t indicate that you should go or even want to go, nor does it indicate a guaranteed level of safety. If we wait for that, it’ll never reopen. Whether or not to visit the resort is a subjective decision based on your level of comfort, your underlying health, and your personal risk factors. If it stays closed through the summer and is forced to operate with extreme limits on crowds and staffing when it does, it won’t be a park you’ll recognize nor will it be able to turn a profit.
    I agree

    Everyday we get out of bed and go to work, vacation, to play we assume some risk. I also agree that when this is all figured out I think we will find that this thing although worth concern and not good will not be as bad as originally thought.

    I for my self would like the ability to take the risk of exposure knowing that the mortality rate is not that bad. For those who are worried about getting it they can stay home and not take that risk or wear a mask and take other steps to feel comfortable with it.

    We can't just stay inside for the next XX number of months or years. At some point we need to start living and experiencing again.
    "If you can Dream it you can Do IT." Walt Disney


  11. #10
    Fun is wherever you find it... olegc's Avatar
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    It's also dependent on how much risk the company's lawyers are willing to allow. I think that's true for any place of work and/or visits. That's why installing some sort of measures to entry are important for them. I also wouldn't be surprised if Disney (or others) come up with new guest risk disclaimers to make the guest assume the responsibility. Be sure to read any new announcements before you go after they open.

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    "[Disneyland] has that thing - the imagination, and the feeling of happy excitement - I knew when I was a kid." - Walt Disney

  12. #11

    We need less lawyers.

    "If you can Dream it you can Do IT." Walt Disney


  13. #12
    Healthy and Happy june1st1997's Avatar
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    Personally, I don't see it re-opening til 2021.

    I have season tickets to several theaters in LA. They have all postponed their seasons.

    A close friend of mine is a teacher for LAUSD. She was been told to be prepared to continue distance learning when school resumes in September.

    DD is starting HS in the fall. Private (her education has been private). We are hearing the same thing in the private school arena. Be prepared to distance learn til 2021.

    Hopefully there will be a serological(antibody) test widely available soon. I think THAT will be a game changer.

    The destruction this virus has caused has been catastrophic. Not only the avoidable loss of human life, but the financial hardships people are suffering as well. Not to mention the emotional toll it is taking on everyone.

    My desire to resume my life as it was, does not out weigh your right stay alive. But that's just me.

    Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn't

    High School here she comes!

  14. #13
    Registered User jmorgan's Avatar
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    I have hotel rooms booked and tickets bought for a trip in June. So I hope in June. However, being a teacher and knowing what they are telling us now about possibly not opening schools till 2021, I am pretty sure they will not open in June. We have not reached the peak of the curve yet in California (looks like sometime in May). That would mean then a one to two month slide down from the top before the stay at home would be lifted. That puts us in July. However, I know the state will not allow tens of thousands of people to come together in close quarters for a long time after that. So my guess is spring 2021.


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    From my perspective I see people wanting to make choices regarding their own risks without consideration for the employees/CMs who would then be forced to assume a much greater risk. I think that when personal health choices for one group removes the option for another group so make similar risk assessments and choices for themselves there needs to be a reassessment.


  16. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Princess of Pi View Post
    From my perspective I see people wanting to make choices regarding their own risks without consideration for the employees/CMs who would then be forced to assume a much greater risk. I think that when personal health choices for one group removes the option for another group so make similar risk assessments and choices for themselves there needs to be a reassessment.
    I think both the employee and the customer would need to choose. You can't force an employee into taking health risks if they don't want to. OSHA gives workers the right to refuse unsafe work activities. I am sure this whole thing falls under that too.

    Your right to refuse to do a task is protected if all of the following conditions are met:
    "If you can Dream it you can Do IT." Walt Disney


  17. #16

    Hi folks, I work in a grocery store, we are taking precautions sanitizing frequently, but there's still a risk. I could sit home and not be paid, try to get some sort of assistance, but that's just not me. I feel there are people out there who need that assistance more than I do. Do I actually feel safe from this virus? No, I don't, but I'm doing what I can to be safe.
    Now I don't see near the volume of people Disneyland does, but I have to think there are cast members who feel the same way I do. Do the best we can to be safe. I feel the Disney company will test different types/methods/strategies in the Asian parks, before making a plan for the U.S. parks. My hope is the parks will reopen before the fall/holiday season begins, but I agree with many of you, the parks will not be the same ones we knew.
    My mother was infected with covid19 from her nursing home. She has made an amazing recovery, it's a miracle after so many younger people did not. She is still positive and is in isolation, but she's doing so much better than any of us dreamed she would. I haven't seen her since March 13, but I get daily reports. Her dementia makes conversations difficult.
    In talking with the doctors and nurses I've learned covid19 can exist in your body for up to 30 days with no symptoms. That is the scariest thing for me. You feel fine, no symptoms, no idea. That's the most dangerous person. I don't know how Disney could protect us from that person.


  18. #17

    ** her dementia make phone conversations difficult. It confuses her to hear my voice but not be able to touch my hand since she is also blind.


  19. #18
    Healthy and Happy june1st1997's Avatar
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    TulaBelle

    Thank you so much for continuing to go to work, I certainly hope you are treated with the extreme gratitude you deserve for it. You are an inspiration. I am so happy to hear your mother recovered. I'm sure you feel very blessed.

    Be well.

    Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn't

    High School here she comes!

  20. #19

    Thank you for your kind words❤


  21. #20
    Self-Proclaimed Disney Queen! Pammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TulaBelle View Post
    My mother was infected with covid19 from her nursing home. She has made an amazing recovery, it's a miracle after so many younger people did not. She is still positive and is in isolation, but she's doing so much better than any of us dreamed she would. I haven't seen her since March 13, but I get daily reports. Her dementia make phone conversations difficult. It confuses her to hear my voice but not be able to touch my hand since she is also blind.
    TulaBelle...thank you for what you continue to do to serve your community. My heart goes out to you about not seeing your mother...mine had dementia and was in a nursing home for two years before she passed last May 1st. I'm glad you are still able to hold phone conversations somewhat with her...my mom hadn't been able to do that for quite some time before she even went into the nursing home in 2017. I can't imagine how horrible it would have been for her and us to not be able to see each other for so long (she still recognized both my brother and me, although she didn't remember our relationships to her) if she was still with us. Please stay strong and stay safe & healthy! Take care...
    Pam
    DL trips: too many to remember actual dates, but they began in the 60s!
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  22. #21

    Tula, much love to you.

    To all those who are going on about "living their lives" and "assuming risk", you seem to have forgotten a) the risk you pose to others and 2) the resources you will drain when you fall ill. You're not the only part of this equation, no matter how cautious you are.

    Criminy, folks. The fact that people don't remember the restrictions in place around influenza, typhus, or polio is proof that, one day, you're gonna be able to get back to normal. There is no need to rush that day if the cost is someone else's life.


  23. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by leota's necklace View Post
    ...........

    To all those who are going on about "living their lives" and "assuming risk", you seem to have forgotten a) the risk you pose to others and 2) the resources you will drain when you fall ill. You're not the only part of this equation, no matter how cautious you are.

    Criminy, folks. The fact that people don't remember the restrictions in place around influenza, typhus, or polio is proof that, one day, you're gonna be able to get back to normal. There is no need to rush that day if the cost is someone else's life.
    I don't think anyone means to suggest it's an across the board idea to just "turn the switch back on" and go back to normal with no precautions in that regard.

    It's the across the board "turning the switch off" that we can't sustain until there is "zero" risk. If you follow the estimates for a timeline for a vaccine, it's not less than a year, assuming all the different steps they do go well. The country (or the world) can't sustain itself in this mode until then.

    No one (I'm pretty sure) is saying things should reopen and nothing should be done and we all just pretend this didn't happen. I think we all see that would be a recipe for a disastrous resurgence.

    It's not like the Parks are going to be the first thing to open and you just cross your fingers and roll the dice either. They will most likely be one of the last things to open due to the obvious large crowds. There will be a lot of time to watch the trends of what happens to any spike in cases as smaller things are opened with precautions as this plays out.

    Also, no one is saying there should not be attempts to lessen risks for those with a higher risk (age, pre-existing conditions, etc). Encouraging people in these situations to continue the distancing and other guidelines for longer if necessary is built into the phases. That's different than saying every person in the country can't go back to jobs and something resembling closer to normal though.

    So back to it not just being people "wanting to get back to normal without considering risks of other people", how long do you think it is reasonable to tell all 100,000+ people who work for Disney parks (who are now not being paid, but are retaining any health benefits, with Disney paying both parts of the premium - for those that had plans) that there is no way they can go back to work until the risk is zero (at best a year for a vaccine)?

    I suspect after the slow re-opening of other things happens there will be a plan developed (again, parks most likely being one of the last things to open) with many precautions for both employees and visitors before some sort of re-opening is attempted. Presumably such a plan would consider any employee concern about their job, how much exposure to the public, etc is involved.

    Hopefully those with conditions/concerns (living with people at risk, etc) would have the opportunity to try to change jobs to something behind the scenes with less public interaction if they are concerned. Would this concern all 100,00 employees, or would some think with precautions in place (be they masks, temperature taking, etc) that they are comfortable with the possibility of returning to their jobs?

    Obviously you can't shuffle all 100,000+ employees to backstage jobs and have no one running the public facing aspects, but this is the sort of thing that hopefully the management is looking at in an attempt to produce some sort of plan. I would have to assume at least some percentage would like to be able to try to return to work to get their paychecks back, even if it means taking some new precautions or changes to the way the job used to be.

    At some point, it becomes needing to be comfortable with some level of non-zero risk. We don't live in a zero risk world, even before this virus. A gradual attempt to get back to something resembling (with new precautions, at least to start) a normal state of life needs to be attempted.
    -Dave

  24. #23
    Healthy and Happy june1st1997's Avatar
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    I'm curious to see what happens when some of these states open in the next week. Will people really rush right out and get their nails done? Go to restaurants? If California opened tomorrow, I do not know anyone who would stop isolating.

    A simple lifting of isolation does not force me out of my house to eat in a restaurant, get my hair cut, etc. . I am not isolating because things are not open (DH, DD and I started March 11) , I am isolating to save my life and protect others.

    What will be the liability of the employer if an employee gets Covid-19? What about a patron? Nail salons can be sued if you acquire a nail infection. Restaurants can be sued for food poisoning. Both industries have implied risk and are still open to legal action. Surely employers open themselves up to some liability. And it doesn't take a verdict to destroy a business. Legals fees alone can cripple a business to say nothing of word of mouth.

    Bottom-line... I could not live with myself I infected someone.

    Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn't

    High School here she comes!

  25. #24
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    Here is my take. I Have an extended family trip planned for late July and I think that is probably not going to happen, but we will see in the coming weeks. My best educated guess would be fall or later.

    When the park does open I think we will see the following at least in the short term based on the current rules for the state the parks are in:

    - Facemasks required at all times. Will be sold like ponchos to those who dont have them (disney branded of course)
    - Active temperature scanning at security checkpoints. Maybe additional screening of some kind or questionare to absolve them of negligence (ask if they have had symptoms or been in contact with anyone who has within the past 14 days). Dr. Offices are doing this now up here before they let you enter.
    - Refund of remaining ticket days if you are unable to enter the park during your trip to help dissuade the 'I've paid and I have to go wheter I'm sick or not or I lose" mentality.
    - passive temperature scanners throughout the park, anyone showing symptoms of cough or other health issues will be asked to leave and compensated
    - hands free sanitization stations everywhere (before and after rides?)
    - Floor marks in queues to denote social distance limits
    - Reduced seating arrangements in restaurants and rides. Vehicles are per party regardless of size, so no single riders or merging parties. On coasters probably a few rows between parties
    - Quick wipe down with sanitizer on lap bars or handles (like they do with grocery carts) between riders
    - Limited capacity to shops. Like they are doing at stores now
    - online only food ordering that is brought to you, to keep general public away from food prep and staging areas as much as possible
    - limited overall park capacity
    - Parades and fireworks are a maybe as I think keeping everyone distanced in the crowds would be too much to manage as they all push for a spot once the show starts


  26. #25

    Dave, don't get me started on the "folks need to get back to work so they need to assume some risk" argument. People should not have to risk death, or killing others, to support themselves.

    Comparisons to car accidents et al will be ignored as they are not the same thing and present a straw man.


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