Darkbeer
09-17-2005, 01:15 PM
http://disneyland.disney.go.com/disneyland/en_US/calendar/specialEvents/detail?name=CoolestRideSpecialEventDetailPage
Here are the basics...
Each day.. (and a day is from 3:01 PM the prior day to 3 PM that day) 7 "winning" game pieces will be placed in the stack of non-winning pieces (overall, 1.8 million, or about 58,000 per day average, of course slow weekdays will have less attendance).
All folks 3 and older have a chance to play, so a family of four would get 4 game pieces.
Each of the seven daily winners get a pair of Deluxe AP's, and then get to participate at about 4:30 PM at the Main Entry Plaza for a chance to win a car.... Each of the 7 winners will draw a key, one of which will open the car. If less than 7 folks turn in their winning piece, then they will remove one "non-winning" key for each no-show.
There are NO other prizes except for the up to 7 daily winners of the pair of AP's, and the one car a day.
The turnstile CM's know, as stated on their computer screen, if it is your first entry of the day, and then those folks will get a game piece. Any additional entry (ParkHopper or return) does not get a game piece. The non-purchase clause allows someone to go to Guest Relations next to the DCA turnstiles and pick up a game piece, limit of one per day.
The game piece has a value of about 33 cents, based on the prizes compared to the odds. That value will go up on slow weekdays (better odds), but more than likely not more than a $1.
The best hope is for some REALLY bad weather, then show up at the park on that day. Otherwise, it won't be worth it to make a special trip to the park to just pick up a game piece. (The cost to get there in the vast majority of cases is more than $1.)
So let's look at the "odds" of winning. First off, there is no way to exactly determine the odds, since it is based on how many tickets are handed out in a "Prize Day", that is from 3:01 PM the day before to 3 PM the day of the giveaway.
The odds mention 1,800,000 tickets. We have no idea if they will use all 1,800,000, which works out to 58,065 people a day on average. We know that is too high for a normal off-season weekday. Last year (per the AB/ERA estimates) Disneyland Park had 13.3 million, and DCA had 5.6 million for a total of 18.9 million a year, or a average of 1,575,000 a month. Now we know the really peak times are Summer, and the last couple of weeks in December, where they have high numbers 7 days a week. In October, most weekdays are a lot less busy. So while October has some special events and promotions (such as Haunted Mansion Holiday), it seems that the total months attendance would be LESS than the monthly average. Then we need to factor in the boost Disneyland has received due to the 50th, but some of that can be offset by the drop in attendance that has been seen at DCA. So, I think the 1.8 million tickets is Disney's HIGHEST expectation of tickets needed, if everything, including this promotion creates a large spike in attendance.
To further this discussion, we need to make some presumptions....
Let's drop the 1.8 million to a more reasonable number, and say 1.5 million in attendance (Still close to last year's monthly average), and I think I am using a number that might be even a bit high.
Now we need to look at Special events....
October 1st and 2nd - Unofficial Gay Days
October 2nd - CHOC walk (These folks will not get a scratch-off ticket for the walk, but many of the folks will go to the park after the DtD ending event)
October 9th - Sunday of a Three Day Weekend
October 10th - Federal Holiday
Mickey's Halloween Event at DCA shouldn't have much of an effect, those tickets do not get a game piece, and most of these folks will be dressed up, and won't be able to go to Disneyland first.
Other than that, we should be able to break down attendance into a few catagories
Monday thru Thursday - Slow off-season days, with the exception of the Holiday - 16 "regular"
Friday - 3 "regular"
Saturday - 3 "regular"
Sunday - 3 "regular"
One more factor, the first day of the contest, no tickets will be handed out from 3:01 PM to closing the day before, only from Park Opening (aka 8:30 AM) to 3 PM, but since it is Saturday and one of the Gay Days, that won't make much of the difference. And anyways, the vast majority of folks have made their first entry into the park by 3 PM.
So, we need to break down the 1.5 million into these catagories, so here is an educated guess ...
Saturday, October 1st - Disneyland 67,000, DCA 13,000 = 80,000
Sunday, October 2nd - Disneyland 60,000, DCA 18,000 = 78,000
Friday, October 7th - Disneyland 60,000, DCA 12,000 = 72,000
Saturday, October 8th - Disneyland 65,000, DCA 15,000 = 80,000
Sunday, October 9th - Disneyland 62,000, DCA 15,000 = 77,000
Monday, October 10th - Disneyland 50,000, DCA 10,000 = 60,000
Regular Friday - Disneyland 47,000, DCA 10,000; 57,000 x 3 = 171,000
Regular Saturday - Disneyland 55,000, DCA 12,000; 67,000 x 3 = 201,000
Regular Sunday - Disneyland 50,000, DCA 12,000; 62,000 x 3 = 186,000
Regular Weekday (Mon-Thur) Disneyland 25,000, DCA 6,500; 31,500 x 16 = 504,000
Ok, that works out to 1.5 million guests for the month of October, and of course these numbers can change due to weather or other fators, it should be a fairly representive number...
So lets look at the "revised odds"....
We still have 271 "winning" cards, 7 per day
We still have a total prize value of $629,486.
But using the more realistic 1.5 million number, your odds of winning a prize has gone down to 1 in 5,535 to win a pair of AP's, and 1 in 48,387 to win a car on average, and the average game piece has a value of 42 cents.
So let's break it down per "catagory"... Of course, the odds of winning the car is 1 in "the daily attendance" (the first number).
Saturday, October 1st - 80,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 11,429, Game Piece value - 25 cents
Sunday, October 2nd - 78,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 11,143, Game Piece value - 26 cents
Friday, October 7th - 72,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 10,286, Game Piece value - 28 cents
Saturday, October 8th - 80,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 11,429, Game Piece value - 25 cents
Sunday, October 9th - 77,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 11,000, Game Piece value - 26 cents
Monday, October 10th - 60,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 8,571, Game Piece value - 34 cents
Regular Friday - 57,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 8,143, Game Piece value - 36 cents
Regular Saturday - 67,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 9,571, Game Piece value - 30 cents
Regular Sunday - 62,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 8,857, Game Piece value - 33 cents
Regular Weekday (Mon-Thur) - 31,500, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 4,500, Game Piece value - 64 cents
So, as you can see, going a slow day does help your odds, but still don't go to the park just to win the car.
One more number, less say we have a day of really bad weather, and say only 14,000 folks show up...
Odds of getting a winning game piece, 1 in 2,000, Game Piece Value would be $1.45.
So go have fun in the park, and if you get lucky, you get lucky...
Here are the basics...
Each day.. (and a day is from 3:01 PM the prior day to 3 PM that day) 7 "winning" game pieces will be placed in the stack of non-winning pieces (overall, 1.8 million, or about 58,000 per day average, of course slow weekdays will have less attendance).
All folks 3 and older have a chance to play, so a family of four would get 4 game pieces.
Each of the seven daily winners get a pair of Deluxe AP's, and then get to participate at about 4:30 PM at the Main Entry Plaza for a chance to win a car.... Each of the 7 winners will draw a key, one of which will open the car. If less than 7 folks turn in their winning piece, then they will remove one "non-winning" key for each no-show.
There are NO other prizes except for the up to 7 daily winners of the pair of AP's, and the one car a day.
The turnstile CM's know, as stated on their computer screen, if it is your first entry of the day, and then those folks will get a game piece. Any additional entry (ParkHopper or return) does not get a game piece. The non-purchase clause allows someone to go to Guest Relations next to the DCA turnstiles and pick up a game piece, limit of one per day.
The game piece has a value of about 33 cents, based on the prizes compared to the odds. That value will go up on slow weekdays (better odds), but more than likely not more than a $1.
The best hope is for some REALLY bad weather, then show up at the park on that day. Otherwise, it won't be worth it to make a special trip to the park to just pick up a game piece. (The cost to get there in the vast majority of cases is more than $1.)
So let's look at the "odds" of winning. First off, there is no way to exactly determine the odds, since it is based on how many tickets are handed out in a "Prize Day", that is from 3:01 PM the day before to 3 PM the day of the giveaway.
The odds mention 1,800,000 tickets. We have no idea if they will use all 1,800,000, which works out to 58,065 people a day on average. We know that is too high for a normal off-season weekday. Last year (per the AB/ERA estimates) Disneyland Park had 13.3 million, and DCA had 5.6 million for a total of 18.9 million a year, or a average of 1,575,000 a month. Now we know the really peak times are Summer, and the last couple of weeks in December, where they have high numbers 7 days a week. In October, most weekdays are a lot less busy. So while October has some special events and promotions (such as Haunted Mansion Holiday), it seems that the total months attendance would be LESS than the monthly average. Then we need to factor in the boost Disneyland has received due to the 50th, but some of that can be offset by the drop in attendance that has been seen at DCA. So, I think the 1.8 million tickets is Disney's HIGHEST expectation of tickets needed, if everything, including this promotion creates a large spike in attendance.
To further this discussion, we need to make some presumptions....
Let's drop the 1.8 million to a more reasonable number, and say 1.5 million in attendance (Still close to last year's monthly average), and I think I am using a number that might be even a bit high.
Now we need to look at Special events....
October 1st and 2nd - Unofficial Gay Days
October 2nd - CHOC walk (These folks will not get a scratch-off ticket for the walk, but many of the folks will go to the park after the DtD ending event)
October 9th - Sunday of a Three Day Weekend
October 10th - Federal Holiday
Mickey's Halloween Event at DCA shouldn't have much of an effect, those tickets do not get a game piece, and most of these folks will be dressed up, and won't be able to go to Disneyland first.
Other than that, we should be able to break down attendance into a few catagories
Monday thru Thursday - Slow off-season days, with the exception of the Holiday - 16 "regular"
Friday - 3 "regular"
Saturday - 3 "regular"
Sunday - 3 "regular"
One more factor, the first day of the contest, no tickets will be handed out from 3:01 PM to closing the day before, only from Park Opening (aka 8:30 AM) to 3 PM, but since it is Saturday and one of the Gay Days, that won't make much of the difference. And anyways, the vast majority of folks have made their first entry into the park by 3 PM.
So, we need to break down the 1.5 million into these catagories, so here is an educated guess ...
Saturday, October 1st - Disneyland 67,000, DCA 13,000 = 80,000
Sunday, October 2nd - Disneyland 60,000, DCA 18,000 = 78,000
Friday, October 7th - Disneyland 60,000, DCA 12,000 = 72,000
Saturday, October 8th - Disneyland 65,000, DCA 15,000 = 80,000
Sunday, October 9th - Disneyland 62,000, DCA 15,000 = 77,000
Monday, October 10th - Disneyland 50,000, DCA 10,000 = 60,000
Regular Friday - Disneyland 47,000, DCA 10,000; 57,000 x 3 = 171,000
Regular Saturday - Disneyland 55,000, DCA 12,000; 67,000 x 3 = 201,000
Regular Sunday - Disneyland 50,000, DCA 12,000; 62,000 x 3 = 186,000
Regular Weekday (Mon-Thur) Disneyland 25,000, DCA 6,500; 31,500 x 16 = 504,000
Ok, that works out to 1.5 million guests for the month of October, and of course these numbers can change due to weather or other fators, it should be a fairly representive number...
So lets look at the "revised odds"....
We still have 271 "winning" cards, 7 per day
We still have a total prize value of $629,486.
But using the more realistic 1.5 million number, your odds of winning a prize has gone down to 1 in 5,535 to win a pair of AP's, and 1 in 48,387 to win a car on average, and the average game piece has a value of 42 cents.
So let's break it down per "catagory"... Of course, the odds of winning the car is 1 in "the daily attendance" (the first number).
Saturday, October 1st - 80,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 11,429, Game Piece value - 25 cents
Sunday, October 2nd - 78,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 11,143, Game Piece value - 26 cents
Friday, October 7th - 72,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 10,286, Game Piece value - 28 cents
Saturday, October 8th - 80,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 11,429, Game Piece value - 25 cents
Sunday, October 9th - 77,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 11,000, Game Piece value - 26 cents
Monday, October 10th - 60,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 8,571, Game Piece value - 34 cents
Regular Friday - 57,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 8,143, Game Piece value - 36 cents
Regular Saturday - 67,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 9,571, Game Piece value - 30 cents
Regular Sunday - 62,000, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 8,857, Game Piece value - 33 cents
Regular Weekday (Mon-Thur) - 31,500, Winning Game Piece - 1 in 4,500, Game Piece value - 64 cents
So, as you can see, going a slow day does help your odds, but still don't go to the park just to win the car.
One more number, less say we have a day of really bad weather, and say only 14,000 folks show up...
Odds of getting a winning game piece, 1 in 2,000, Game Piece Value would be $1.45.
So go have fun in the park, and if you get lucky, you get lucky...