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View Full Version : April 24-28 DLH and GCH sold out?



DangerMouse
03-08-2005, 03:40 PM
Other hotels are showing elevated prices during this time now too (I checked travelaxe). However, DL hours during this time are bare bones (9am-7pm) DCA (10-6).

Not to be labeled one of those "OCD, AR crowd haters" (ok, so really I am), but I am wondering if anyone knows why the resort hotels would be sold out during mid-week at the end of April? Don't say spring break, cause I don't buy it. Sure maybe a select few weird schools may have a very odd spring break 4 weeks after Easter, but that doesn't account for what appears to be a large amount of reservations in the Anaheim area during a normally off-peak time.

Please don't slam me for being OCD, my entire family already gives me enough grief over it. Should I call the DLH and ask what gives? Would they give me a straight answer? Or should I just purchase RideMax and be prepared to face large crowds?

WWYD? And please don't say "see a therapist". :p Thanks for your help!

downingfamily1
03-08-2005, 03:54 PM
There may be a convention in town. There is a website for the Anaheim convention center that has a calendar of events (i'm not sure what the site address is- try google). The Disney hotels are popular with convention people because they are nice and also close to the convention center.
If you don't find anything I would call Disney and ask. I have done it before and they usually will let you know what is going on and if they anticipate that it will affect the park.
-Julie

DangerMouse
03-08-2005, 04:11 PM
Yeah, I checked that. Looks like there's a Dental convention, but it's not too large. A couple other very small conventions as well. Nothing sticks out like the most recent cheerleading convention just held.

Thanks for responding, though! I'm just dreading the response from BradK. I know how he just loves these crowd questions. . . ;)

bradk
03-08-2005, 05:18 PM
wow. not sure if i should feel complimented or insulted. well, maybe a bit of both.

so, my first response. low vacancies at the hotels isn't time to worry. NO vacancies is the time to worry.

second, as with anything else in life, it's normal for hotel rates to go up as your date draws closer. it's not so much to do with the hotel filling up as it is that the hotel is preying on the consumer and taking advantage of late decisions. rationale being as your date comes nearer, the more you'll be willing to pay for the room. the same reason why holidays are always higher - if someone's willing to pay for it, they're willing to charge it. people mock me for planning out my trips 3 months out, but regardless of the time of year and location, i always find things to get surprisingly more expensive a month out.

third, i'll confirm your fears. traditionally speaking, the month surrounding easter is the busiest because of spring break (i.e., until the last week of may). easter is earlier this year, but it's still anyone's guess. i think most people are still going on previous numbers and expecting all of april to be a heavy crowd.

Darkbeer
03-08-2005, 09:15 PM
I read somewhere that many Utah schools are getting a late Spring break (the second half of April), that might have something to do with it...

MyBeast
03-08-2005, 09:29 PM
Other hotels are showing elevated prices during this time now too (I checked travelaxe). However, DL hours during this time are bare bones (9am-7pm) DCA (10-6). !

Disneyland is actually 9 am to 8 pm Mon- Thurs that week and 9 am to 12 am Friday
DCA is 10 am to 7 pm Mon- Thurs and 10 am - 9 pm on Friday for that week.

DCA is extended one hour, which is lucky cause most week days they do close at 6pm.

It'll be crowded if there are spring breaks going on, but shouldn't be too horrible.
As it is getting closer to the 50th, there will probably be a few rate hikes so book early.

DangerMouse
03-09-2005, 05:19 AM
Disneyland is actually 9 am to 8 pm Mon- Thurs that week and 9 am to 12 am Friday
DCA is 10 am to 7 pm Mon- Thurs and 10 am - 9 pm on Friday for that week.

DCA is extended one hour, which is lucky cause most week days they do close at 6pm.

It'll be crowded if there are spring breaks going on, but shouldn't be too horrible.
As it is getting closer to the 50th, there will probably be a few rate hikes so book early.

I wonder why the disneyland.com calendar shows different hours than what you are quoting?

Thanks, Darkbeer for the info on Utah schools. Any opinions on Ridemax?

bradk
03-09-2005, 06:23 AM
i haven't read a single bad thing about ridemax (seriously - and i did check before i offered up my $20 or whatever).

acts of god aside, you can be pretty assured that you will feel that it has done no harm, if it hasn't even enhanced your experience. and they do offer a 30 day money back guarantee.

i don't really know if you need it if you're spending 4 full days in the parks, even if it is crowded (especially since only one of those days falls on a weekend, which would be a prime time for DCA).

rentayenta
03-09-2005, 06:26 AM
Thanks, Darkbeer for the info on Utah schools. Any opinions on Ridemax?



RideMax works. It's easy to use and allows for flexibilty or marathon ride riding. :)

Opus1guy
03-09-2005, 11:47 AM
second, as with anything else in life, it's normal for hotel rates to go up as your date draws closer. it's not so much to do with the hotel filling up as it is that the hotel is preying on the consumer and taking advantage of late decisions. rationale being as your date comes nearer, the more you'll be willing to pay for the room. the same reason why holidays are always higher - if someone's willing to pay for it, they're willing to charge it. people mock me for planning out my trips 3 months out, but regardless of the time of year and location, i always find things to get surprisingly more expensive a month out.

This may have been 100% accurate in "the old days" when hotels used to do just this. But things have changed dramatically in the hotel industry over the years. Nowadays, sophisticated "Yield Management" computer programs often do just the opposite of what you write to a great degree. With the goal to maximize the average room revenue per day, yet fill the hotel as much as possible for efficiencies of operation and additional spendings on incidentals (restaurant, phone, bar, etc)...these Yield Management programs are constantly reviewing bookings and re-evaluating probable loads based on current activity and past history. One day deep discounted rooms may disappear. Then just a week later the system may re-evaluate and release a block of deep discounted rooms. And not all of those rooms may be sold at that price! If those deep-discounted rooms sell too quickly, the system may pull the remaining ones and jack their prices up based on that new activity. It's all very complex and "living."

Very generally however, most systems have 4 main cycles for releasing discounted room rates if the systems tell them they're not going to be sold out:

1. Far in advance: Discounted rooms available.
2. Somewhat closer in to the date: No Discounted rooms.
3. Couple of months out: More discounted rooms added.
4. Final weeks: Could go either way.

Every program's parameters and algorithms are different of course, and each day of the year is even different. But the big difference between how the industry used to operate, is that last minute bookings no longer mean you have to pay the highest prices! It could mean the lowest price even ("Sell-Down Rates" as they are referred to) if the hotel has many rooms to fill. If the hotel only has a few rooms left a week out, they'll price those very high. Then just a day or two before the date, it's very likely they could even deep discount those if they don't think they're going to get any demand for them at that point.

Holidays are programed differently and are generally easier to predict because there is a long history that the Yield Management system can look to. But even with that, Yield Management will make adjustments if trends are not shaping up very well.

For example, every Xmas we pretty much stay at the same hotel on the East Coast. All the way from 330 days to about 200 days out the rates were sky high as the hotel was trying to maximize revenue during a stay period they knew historically they would be fairly full. Then about 3 months out discounted rates finally appeared on their web site and we grabbed one. About a week later the room rates where sky high again! Then about 3 weeks before Xmas they released some more discounted rooms for a couple of days of sales, and then jacked them up again. Finally just 4 days before Xmas they dumped some rooms even lower priced than the discounted rate we were booked under! So we booked anew and canceled our old one. :) Those that booked too far in advance...they got screwed.

"Sell-Down" rates even exist for same-day walk-ins at almost every hotel I've done work at (including Disney's in California, Florida and Paris). These are in effect "the lowest rate you can sell a one night stay for tonight." They are displayed on Check-In agent's screens or written on an Easy Wipe board in the front desk office. It might say something like: "Tonight's Sell Down: $75."

This means if someone walks in or calls and asks "How much is a room tonight?"...the Agent is supposed to start off by offering a higher or Rack Rate. But if the person baulks or asks if anything lower is available, the Agent can come down in price but can only go down as low as the Sell Down rate. It's all subject to negotiation sometimes as a walk-in.

Hotel and Airline (which is even more complex) pricing is a remarkable and fascinating subject. Same exact room or the same exact seat, but the price can vary greatly based on demand, loads, and when you check pricing. Which is why the savvy traveler never just books a room and then ends their search. The savvy traveler continues to monitor rates and checks to see if the rates have come down since the time when (if) they booked, even from what they thought was a good rate at the time! ;)

Yield Management systems can be so finely tuned, that even just interest can trigger prices to rise! If you've ever gone to a hotel or airline booking web site and came up with a rate you liked, and then went back 10 minutes later to find that now the rate was higher...well...you probably were responsible for the rate hike! How? Just your interest and inquiry in the date and room/flight might have caused the Yield Management system to bump the rate. Couple of days without interest or bookings, and it could come down again!

It's all designed to get the most money per room-night and yet still fill the hotel as close to 100% as possible. Very few hotels these days can afford to hold the line on prices and sell only a portion of their rooms at a full rate, and let the rest of the rooms go empty and to waste. It's the "something is better than nothing" economics.

bradk
03-09-2005, 11:55 AM
But the big difference between how the industry used to operate, is that last minute bookings no longer mean you have to pay the highest prices! It could mean the lowest price even ("Sell-Down Rates" as they are referred to) if the hotel has many rooms to fill. If the hotel only has a few rooms left a week out, they'll price those very high. Then just a day or two before the date, it's very likely they could even deep discount those if they don't think they're going to get any demand for them at that point.

it's the same thing really. you're just talking about an automated process making judgements based on mathematics. but what it comes down to is supply and demand. i do agree with the logic at all points, but in this case, i was talking specifically a month out.

yes, if a hotel has empty rooms the day before, you can probably get a great rate. this is because a room booked at half the rack rate is still more revenue than an empty room at 100% the rack rate. not to suggest the hotel won't take 100% if offered, but it's still a buyer's market at that point. the competitiveness and the inclusion of one-stop-shopping via the internet makes it that way.

however - and that's a big however - you'd have to be willing to take the chance that there's going to be a hotel room a week before. the fact is, the hotel is going to do the majority of its bookings when its prices are higher (about a month out or so) because that's when people start committing to their plans.

to add fuel to the fire, i would advocate booking now at a higher rate than waiting it out and hoping something better comes along. or at least make reservations at a comfortable rate with an agreeable cancelation policy in case something does come along last minute, but one shouldn't hold one's breath for that.