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TimBuk2
01-22-2005, 07:49 PM
Does anybody have the insider scoop on how many AP holders there are at the present time for DLR?

And I don't need any guesses, I can do that. They should have more days or evenings that are for APs only, and at NO EXTRA COST like they used to do.

Corwin17
01-22-2005, 08:00 PM
Does anybody have the insider scoop on how many AP holders there are at the present time for DLR? I've never heard absolute numbers, but I have heard that the ratios are about 7-to-3, AP-to-DayGuest.

(Yeah, yeah. You asked for no guesses, but I posted anyway. :p )

sediment
01-22-2005, 08:52 PM
It's hard to find archives for some web sites, but last I heard it was over 600,000. No idea how many of wach type there are.
Yes, it's too many, since you asked. (Well, I heard someone ask.)

TimBuk2
01-23-2005, 05:45 PM
It's hard to find archives for some web sites, but last I heard it was over 600,000. No idea how many of wach type there are.
Yes, it's too many, since you asked. (Well, I heard someone ask.)

Wow, that sounds high, doesn't it?

Corwin17
01-23-2005, 07:24 PM
Wow, that sounds high, doesn't it?ONly if you think they are *ALL* going to get in on the same day! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

Don't forget, that number includes all those people that don't live in so cal that come here only a few times a year and find it more economical to get an AP.

marktips
01-23-2005, 08:17 PM
But it does include those 7 to every 3 day guests as well.

If the park has 40,000 people visit in a day, that's 28,000 annual passholders - too many. That's more people than visit DCA most days.

marktips
01-23-2005, 08:18 PM
*does some math*

DL attendance 2004: 13.4million

Average daily AP to Dayguest ratio 7:3, or 70%

Average Daily Attendance: 36,712 guests daily

70% (AP's) of daily: 25,698 APs daily.

Approximate number of AP's: 600,000

Average passholder admissions per year: 15.63 (total number of passholder admissions divided by total number of passholders)

So, for one super cheap price, most APs go 15 times a year. I don't think them raising the price is unfair.

TimBuk2
01-24-2005, 06:44 AM
*does some math*

DL attendance 2004: 13.4million

Average daily AP to Dayguest ratio 7:3, or 70%

Average Daily Attendance: 36,712 guests daily

70% (AP's) of daily: 25,698 APs daily.

Approximate number of AP's: 600,000

Average passholder admissions per year: 15.63 (total number of passholder admissions divided by total number of passholders)

So, for one super cheap price, most APs go 15 times a year. I don't think them raising the price is unfair.


I have easily gone 15 times in a month. But the price is still too much. And then again, if I use my on analgy, it's only $0.99 per day to save up for it all year.

sediment
01-24-2005, 07:51 AM
Wow, that sounds high, doesn't it?
Out of 14 million people in SoCal? Not really. (I could add in San Diego with a larger radius, but I think the point is made.) A little less than 5%.

Actually, I think it might be low.
I think 7:3 might be a little high.

sediment
01-24-2005, 08:00 AM
So, for one super cheap price, most APs go 15 times a year.

[nerdy math guy]Your math did not prove this. It proved that the mean-average AP goes at least 15 times per year. Not the median, as your statement implies (to me, at least). It's possible that a number of obsessive types go much more than 15 or 20 times ("weekly" seems to be a popular amount -- poll, anyone?), thereby skewing the mean away from the median.[/nerdy math guy]

kisroo
01-24-2005, 08:58 AM
Don't forget, that number includes all those people that don't live in so cal that come here only a few times a year and find it more economical to get an AP.

Yeah! Don't forget us!! ;)

Darkbeer
01-24-2005, 09:22 AM
The number I have seen for MULTIPLE sources (such as Al Lutz, Kevin Yee, and Marcie from MouseInfo) is 600,000+ AP holders. Of course things do change, but I think that the 600,000 is a pretty accurate number.

marktips
01-24-2005, 09:41 AM
[nerdy math guy]Your math did not prove this. It proved that the mean-average AP goes at least 15 times per year. Not the median, as your statement implies (to me, at least). It's possible that a number of obsessive types go much more than 15 or 20 times ("weekly" seems to be a popular amount -- poll, anyone?), thereby skewing the mean away from the median.[/nerdy math guy]

The math showed - ON AVERAGE - an AP goes 15 times a year.

Without a full scatter plot we can't prove a skew - and we wont get that info anytime soon from Disney - so, for functional purposes each AP goes roughly 15 times a year, more than justfying the cost of an AP and any future price hikes.

VickiC
01-24-2005, 10:21 AM
I wonder how long those 15 visits are on average?

Last year I can think of at least 3 visits on my part of less than 2 hours. I'm sure none of the day trippers stay that short of a time.

Sheila
01-24-2005, 10:31 AM
Without a full scatter plot we can't prove a skew - and we wont get that info anytime soon from Disney - so, for functional purposes each AP goes roughly 15 times a year, more than justfying the cost of an AP and any future price hikes.

I dunno about that one. At one point, I did indeed go twice a month. Now down to once every month or so. And I got to know quite a few people from those frequent visits. Same faces, different day. And it was a small group of people too.

So, my best anecdotal guess is that only a very small subset of APs go more than once a month. You just burn out after a while. It's like all those folks who sign up for gym memberships in January to keep their New Year's resolutions -- after a month or so, they dwindle away.

I totally agree DL will never release the exact numbers, but my educated guess from years of park going is that the majority of most APs visit much less than 15 times year. YMMV as I'm strictly going off of personal observation.

And I would like to add in that I buy WDW APs when I visit as the breakeven point is 9 days, right? When I do hold an AP, I go twice a year which makes it roughly 16-18 days of usage. But by WDW standards, I'm not sure that makes me an obsessive AP holder. Mark, you know better on WDW stuff than me, but I've always felt that I got *much* better value for my WDW AP than my DL one. And the cost of a WDW AP isn't that much higher (for four parks) than the DL one is (for 2 parks).

Sheila

AliciasMom
01-24-2005, 10:46 AM
I go to the park for one long day trip every three or four months. I can't afford to go any more than that and I think if I did Disney would lose its magic for me.

sediment
01-24-2005, 10:47 AM
I disagree with your reasoning, though I agree with your conclusions about increasing AP prices. Especially the Premium one.
I'd like to get rid of the Premium one, so the park can be more enjoyable for paying guests at the busiest times.
I'd like to lower daily and multi-day admission prices, so the AP seems even less worth it.

sediment
01-24-2005, 10:47 AM
The number I have seen for MULTIPLE sources (such as Al Lutz, Kevin Yee, and Marcie from MouseInfo) is 600,000+ AP holders. Of course things do change, but I think that the 600,000 is a pretty accurate number.
Plus/Minus 100,000. Yeah, now THERE's a confidence interval.

SoCalDude
01-24-2005, 12:03 PM
We go on average 2 times a month, sometimes it slips to once a month and sometimes it goes up to 4 times a month. But this is only for the times a SoCal pass is valid (despite the fact we do own one premium pass).

As APers we do not want to go when it is busy - why would we want to go when the wait for the rides we like are long? We like going and bascially walking right onto the ride. Our last visit we made three trips on POTC without even getting off the boat, or just moving to a different row.

Deogge's Mom
01-24-2005, 12:12 PM
Lately I've been going once a week. I was actually there twice this weekend, but both trips were pretty short. Saturday night I went to see Fantasmic and was there about 3 hours. Sunday afternoon I went for lunch and was there about two or three hours, plus a couple of hours at DL Hotel at the Lost Bar. :D

D-lander 1956
01-24-2005, 01:44 PM
[nerdy math guy]Your math did not prove this. It proved that the mean-average AP goes at least 15 times per year. Not the median, as your statement implies (to me, at least). It's possible that a number of obsessive types go much more than 15 or 20 times ("weekly" seems to be a popular amount -- poll, anyone?), thereby skewing the mean away from the median.[/nerdy math guy]


Plus/Minus 100,000. Yeah, now THERE's a confidence interval.

[nerdy know-it-all] Ok, and what makes you a qualified expert on AP count? [nerdy know-it-all] :geek: :) ;) :)
My poll count is 2 times a month.

duffman03
01-24-2005, 01:51 PM
70% of their guests come from annual passes? Where did that come from - no way is that accurate. I can believe there are 600,000 passes and I can believe that the people on this board go 15+ times a year, but not the average passholder. If that were true, the price would have gone up a long time ago. And not just by a few dollars.

QueenAlisha
01-24-2005, 01:52 PM
We go once a month most of the time, sometimes we skip cause of other plans and such. then again we only can go on weekends and its a friday-sunday thing..which work out to 2 full park days. 1/2 firday and sunday and all day sat. i guess we arent normal...

sediment
01-24-2005, 01:57 PM
[nerdy know-it-all] Ok, and what makes you a qualified expert on AP count? [nerdy know-it-all] :geek: :) ;) :)
My poll count is 2 times a month.
1. I just figured with such a large number of AP holders, there's plenty of room for AP attendance counts of 1 (some people get them as gifts, due to the advertising push, but only go once) )through 365 (Darkbeer?).
2. I've got a vollege degree.
3. I've worked in a Statistics-heavily professional filed for 16 years.
4. I did ask for a poll, and even tried to make one. Apparently I'm not allowed to create a poll. If someone is allowed, can he or she post as follows:
For AP holders: How many times do you go to DLr in the past 365 days with your AP?
I'm thinking of reasonable ranges. How about 1-5, 6-10, etc., to 100+?

disneyhound
01-24-2005, 02:15 PM
vutt university did you get your vollege degree at... ;)