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Darkbeer
01-21-2003, 08:35 AM
In today's new article (http://www.miceage.com/kevinyee/ky012103a.htm) by Kevin Yee over at MiceAge.com, he reports that over the last 12 months, over a million folks bought (or renewed) a DLR AP:eek: And that 40% of the yearly attendance for the Disneyland Park is AP holders....

Gee, what does that say about the 4.7 million reported attendance at DCA:confused:

cemeinke
01-21-2003, 09:10 AM
In the same article he uses Half a million, so I wonder if that's a typo since last year Al reported there being 450 thousand APs which is a big enough number.

DisneyGuy03
01-21-2003, 09:11 AM
We already knew that, that's why they need to be doing more to get their annuall pass holders to come more often and to encourage them to spend more money (have discounts Sea World style, 10% on food, including outdoor vending andn have a frequent buyer card that's valid at certain restraunts, every 5 meals you purchase, you get one free and 15% discount on merchandise and no minimum purchase for either, basically the only requirement is that it is somewhere that has a cash register) and keep changing shows, adding new shows, adding new attractions at least one new attraction and show per park per year.

Darkbeer
01-21-2003, 09:48 AM
Cemeinke, I think Kevin Yee is pretty clear on the million.

The title of the article is "Eternal Passes: Do a million passholders make for more problems?".

And then this....


The AP’s have become a force to be reckoned with. How big a force? Brace yourself: there are a million of them now. Current ones!

And then in the next paragraph...


A million people have paid between $105-225 within the past twelve months.

So, I don't think it is a typo....

Rallymonkey23
01-21-2003, 10:08 AM
So about the derailment of this thread. But I would like to thank Darkbeer for the photos from the big island.

I was just wondering though. Why did I not see any pools in the arial shots? :p ;) :D :~)

RStar
01-21-2003, 10:10 AM
Originally posted by Darkbeer

Gee, what does that say about the 4.7 million reported attendance at DCA:confused:

I think it means that each of the 1 mill. APs went to DCA 4 times and that 400,000 unsespecting souls paid full admission. It doesn't say how many asked for a refund, however;) .

Ghoulish Delight
01-21-2003, 02:44 PM
Originally posted by Darkbeer
Cemeinke, I think Kevin Yee is pretty clear on the million.

The title of the article is "Eternal Passes: Do a million passholders make for more problems?".

And then this....



And then in the next paragraph...



So, I don't think it is a typo.... Yeah, but look later in the article. "that hypothetical $112 million if all million AP’s bought the premium pass?"

At $225/primium AP, $112 million is the total cost of half a million, not one million (simple math, one million 225s is $225 million, half of which is $112.5 million). And two sentences later, "Not with half a million passholders,..."

I think cemeinke is right. I'm not sure how, but Kevin messed up multiple times and only got it right during the math and in that one sentence. Last year's AP numbers were 450 thousand. The odds of it having doubled in a year a slim to none.

RStar
01-21-2003, 03:19 PM
I think I have to agree, GD. That is a huge growth jump. I wondered how that could have happend in such a short time.

But I think he still makes some valid points whether it is 1 million, or a half million.

Ghoulish Delight
01-21-2003, 03:49 PM
Originally posted by RStar
I think I have to agree, GD. That is a huge growth jump. I wondered how that could have happend in such a short time.

But I think he still makes some valid points whether it is 1 million, or a half million. Yes and no. Let's look at his math.

His claim:
1/2 million APs at the full $225 = $112.5 Million.
12 Million full price tickets at $47 = $564 Million.

A large differene indeed, but he forgets something. Using one of his figures, if you assume an average of 12 visits per year per APer (which I think is a VERY high estimate), that accounts for 6 million in the attendance figures, leaving 6 million to pay full price (well, not everyone pays full price, but his calculations assumed full price, so I will). Thats $282 million ON TOP OF the AP sales, at least. That's a total of almost $400 million. Suddenly the gap isn't so big. Add to that the ammount of merchandise money and special event money that APers spend (which, despite the occasional penny pincher that packs a sack lunch, on average is siginificantly more than the average guest), that gap dwindles before your eyes.

I do not disagree that Disney needs to do more to court "unique" guests, as he calls it. Especially as they attempt to turn it into a destination resort. But funny math is not going to convince me that the situation is as dire as he makes it sound.

cstephens
01-21-2003, 04:44 PM
I'm wondering where the one million figure comes from. I'd have to know the source before taking that number at face value. Anybody can claim anything.

But, curious that the article talks about the resort in general and only mentions DCA in passing and not even by name (I don't think), and yet this thread starts by taking yet another swipe at DCA...

Kevin Yee
01-21-2003, 05:25 PM
You math hounds have ferreted out the truth (probably too much practice in MouseAdventure, haha):

When I submitted the article, I was saying 500,000 throughout, and used that figure for my math.

During the editing process it was changed to 1 million on the basis of some deep insider info. It wasn't "my" insider, if you know what I mean, but I've decided at this point to accept the information. The article should be revised by tomorrow to reflect one million throughout.

Hopefully, though, the point I was trying to make gets across either way: I fear the slide into a regional park and all that entails.

Re: funny math. I wasn't trying to imply that the other 60% wasn't paying full fare. But I would take issue with the idea that the annual passholders are buying $164 million (the difference between an all-tourist park and a 40% AP park) *MORE* in merch and food than tourists do. On average, in fact, I think AP's spend less.

*You* may spend more, and in fact anyone reading these message boards may spend more, but rest assured, there are not 500,000 annual passholders reading this board (let alone one million). You are not the average AP.

(hope that doesn't sound testy - isn't meant that way!)

And yes - my article wasn't directed at DCA at all. It's about DL, or at most, the Resort as a whole.

MonorailMan
01-21-2003, 08:27 PM
When I think about it, one million APers sounds about right. In my opinion, the APers do usually bring in more money than a one day person.

Alex S.
01-21-2003, 08:56 PM
Another question that has to be asked is whether an annual passholder DISPLACES a full-price admission.

Presumably it does at some point. If the park was filled, every day, with 70,000 passholders then there wouldn't be that many day-payers in the park.

So, let's start by looking at the extremes:

A park full of APs vs. a park full of people who paid at the gate that morning.

If anybody has done the revenue analysis on the two scenarios, it is Disney. So if we can figure out which they would choose, we can make a reasonable guess on who will make the most for Disney in a calendar year.

Fortunately, we can do that. Disney expected that DCA would be jam-packed, without fail, for at least a year after they opened. So, what did they do? They stopped selling annual passes to DCA.

So it seems pretty clear that Disney itself believes that day-payers are more valuable and that allowing APs for DCA would push out the more valuable guests.

So, the question for Disneyland is: at what point do you have so many APs in the park that you begin to push out better value? Honestly, I have no idea, but I suspect that Disney doesn't think that they've reached that point. Heck, two weeks ago they made APs an even better value when they raised the price of a single-day admission without similarly raising the price of an AP.

DisneyGuy03
01-21-2003, 09:10 PM
12 times in a year is a high number? Since renewing my pass in October I have been there about 25 times.

Also, if we really want to get technical, let's look at the real numbers here:

Here's the claim:

1/2 million APs at the full $225 = $112.5 Million.
12 Million full price tickets at $47 = $564 Million

Here's reality:
1/2 million APs total.
The following precentages are my best guess only:
25% (125,000) So Cal. at $105 = $13,125,000

30% (150,000) Deluxe at $175 (I know the price went up, but I can't remember to what, sorry) = $26,250,000

40% (200,000) Premium at $225 = $45,000,000

Totals $84,375,000

On average, let's say that each passholder visits the resort 4.5 times (means 9 in reality, as they now count your inital entry at both parks, the systems doesn't know if you have been in the other park earlier in the day or not and has worked this way for some time)
That totals 4,500,000 of the 12 million.

30% are castmembers on their off time enjoying the parks at any given time, that another 3,600,000

10% have been signed in, that totals 1,200,000 (This is even within the most conservative estimates)

So, those with Annual Pass/getting in for free totals 9,300,000

Park Hopers and other discounted media account for 20% of attendance, totaling 2,400,000 at an average of $25 per day (each new day becomes a new guest) totals $60,000,000

Which brings the total to 11,700,000, leaving only 300,000 per year buying full price one day tickets, which totals $14,100,000 at $47 per ticket.

The total between the last two categories is $74,100,000

Therefore, in admission alone Annual Pass Holders generate approximately $10,275,000 more than non-pass holders.

Now lets look at average per day spending: Non-CM and Non-Annual Pass Holders, on average will spend $20 per visit, totaling $78,000,000

Annual Pass Holders will spend approximately $30 per visit, totalling $135,000,000

Cast Members will spend approximately $30 per visit, totaling $108,000,000

So the totals are per year:
Non-CM and Non-Annual Pass Holders (Including those signed in): $152,100,000

Annual Pass Holders:
$219,375,000

Cast Members:
$108,000,000

So, now who generates the most revnue? Well, I guess to be fair, we need to add in parking, which I will say averages out at $8.50, due to oversized vehicles and lower price motorcycles:
80% So Cal that don't have Parking Benefits = 100,000 x $8.50 = $850,000
85% Deluxe that don't have Parking Benefits = 127,500 x $8.50 = $1,083,750
APs Parking totals: $1,933,750

Sign-ins, Park Hoppers/Discounted Tickets and One Day Guests:
90% of 3,900,000 guests pay for parking: so thats 3,510,000 x $8.50 = $29,835,000

If any CMs do have to pay for parking, it is negligable as far as theese numbers are concerned, I believe none do though.

So our final totals are in:
APs: $221, 308,750

Non-CMs/Non-APs: $181,935,000

CMs: $108,000,000

Total estimated revunue at the parks alone (Not counting Downtown Disney and Hotels, which APs have a fair share of as well): $511,243,705.

Please be aware that the above percentages are what I ahve estimated by what I have seen at the parks, in talking with people, being observant; however the estimead total for sign-ins is actually 20% of total attendance, according to most CMs and CM attendances is approxmiately 30%, but there are times where CM attendance is 50%, so it is an average over the year. I am guesstimating the percentage of each level of Annual Pass, again, based on what I have seen and heard in the parks and from CMs, the same goes for Park Hoppers. I do not make any promises as to the accuracy of the percentages, but I do believe that they are fairly accurate.

driftwood714
01-21-2003, 11:06 PM
I have never heard of a day where there are 30% cast members in the Park. Unless it's the last day of the XMas discount week for us. CMs and their sign-ins are a very small number, less than 10 percent, usually.

DisneyGuy03
01-21-2003, 11:20 PM
Yeah and 10% sign ins are low, so it balances out, actually CMs account for a lot more than you would think, definitely over 10%, bare minimum 20% of attendance figures, even by the most conservative estimates, but even a 20% difference doesn't make a large enough difference in the final figures to change my point, for that matter, even not counting CMs at all doesn't change the results.

driftwood714
01-22-2003, 07:00 AM
Any percentage would make a difference in the final figures. Unfortunately, your estimates are a bit overinflated. DCA has more Annual Passholders and discounted tickets coming through it's gates, whereas in comparison, Disneyland has more full price tickets entering through the gates. A lot times DCA has anywhere from 25% (usually Saturdays) to 60% (usually Sundays) total attendance being APs. As far as if they are counting CMs in as the attendance, thats something I don't know.

Ghoulish Delight
01-22-2003, 07:24 AM
Originally posted by DisneyGuy03
12 times in a year is a high number? Since renewing my pass in October I have been there about 25 times.
12 on AVERAGE, I think, is high. You are not the average. As Kevin pointed out, most people here are not the average. Personally, I know a goodly number of people that buy a SoCal pass for a 3 day visit because it's the best deal, then never come again the rest of the year, especially considering all the blockout dates.

And Kevin, you're right, AP merch. and event spending does not completely close the gap. Like I said, I agree with you that Disney needs to begin changing their focus to value out of towners more. But, whether you intended to or not (even in your revised wording that I read today), by not mentioning the ammount of people that do buy single day tickets above and beyond the AP income, you exagerate the disparity. BTW, do you honestly believe that AP purchases doubled in the past year? Ooh, that sounds like a snide rhetorical, but it wasn't meant to be. I honestly want to know if you think that's the case. Or was Al's figure of 450 thousand too low last year?

Incidentally, DinseyGuy, your figures for the AP breakdown only add up to 95%.

One more thing. I agree with Alex. Dinsey, on some level, does still do things that show how much it values the day admission guest. Blockout days is a prime example. Right there they are saying that, in the best of worlds when they have high demand, they prefer to have full price admission guests in the park over APs. So those kind of things contradict their other attempts to overload the place with APs. Go figure.

Not Afraid
01-22-2003, 07:45 AM
Wow! First Kevin states that both swans in the moat are males then ups the number of passholders from 500K to 1 mil. That number sure grew quickly!

BTW. There is both a male and a female swan. Hence the Cygnet that was born last year.

DisneyGuy03
01-22-2003, 08:47 AM
Any percentage would make a difference in the final figures. Unfortunately, your estimates are a bit overinflated. DCA has more Annual Passholders and discounted tickets coming through it's gates, whereas in comparison, Disneyland has more full price tickets entering through the gates. A lot times DCA has anywhere from 25% (usually Saturdays) to 60% (usually Sundays) total attendance being APs. As far as if they are counting CMs in as the attendance, thats something I don't know
That is balanced between the two, since the 12 million is between both parks. Some feel that 12 is a high number, that's why I averaged it out at 4.5 vists per park per year, making a total of 9 per annual pass holder, they now and have for soemt ime to boost nmbers counted first time entries into both parks for multi-day pass and APs.

As for my total for Annual Pass Holders only totalling 95%...oops, well, that then means that the dollar ammounts for Annual Pass Holder attendance revenue is even higher then I stated, only further proving my point.

And, yes there would be a difference in numbers if we got rid of all of the CMs coming in, but APs would still rank as having being the ones that bring in the largest percentage of the income.

So, my point remains that Kevin Yee's statement that non-APs bring in more income than APs is absolutely wrong.

homerow
01-22-2003, 08:51 AM
testing, ignore.

Ghoulish Delight
01-22-2003, 09:08 AM
Another correction DisneyGuy. The 12 million attendance figure is for Disneyland Park only, not for the resort as a whole. Kevin Yee's discussion and math do not hinge on DCA attendance or park hopping at all.

And, in the end, his statement is not that "non-APs bring in more income than APs." What he is trying to argue is that the total income with the current proliferation of APs is less than the total income would be in the hypothetical world where there were significantly fewer (or zero) APs.

RStar
01-22-2003, 09:49 AM
So, Kevin. You are saying it is possible that the amount of AP holders has doubled in a year? Wow. Must have been the marketting and lowering the price for the two park pass (making DCA free). As I said in my email, your ideas have opened my eyes, regardless of the 1 mill./half mill. question.

And DisneyGuy03, I think figuring that a full price day guest spends only $20 each is a bit low. They will be the ones on a family vacation and need to buy food for all 3 meals, as well as souvineers. I think it will be more likely to be $45-50 each. And don't forget that those out of towners might be bringing in revinue at the hotels if they stay on the property. Also, if you are saying that 30% of entries into the park are CMs, and the park could have 30,000 people in it, you're saying there could be 9,000 CMs there off the clock. How many CMs does DLR employ? I know that the studios and Disney store count as well (and all the parks around the world, but thoses numbers at DLR any given day are low I'm sure).

And GD, what I was saying is that Kevin's ideas, as he concered, were valid as far as the upcomming state of the park. I wasn't refering to the dollars or AP figures.

And as far as us not being "average APs", that may be true. I visit on an average of 25-30 times a year. Often I'm there once a week. But I think we need to factor in that the APs (Spell check wants to change us all to APES BTW:eek: ) have become a better deal to out-of-towners who only use it for a 3-5 day trip, and either don't use it again, or use it at the end for another 3-5 day trip.

~Bob

Kevin Yee
01-22-2003, 09:49 AM
I was all set to argue that I never said it was male-male swan pair *NOW*, but that the first pair had been in 1955. But then I double checked, and it looks like I must have changed the sentence around while revising the essay. I can see how you would think I meant that as truth now. I should have worded it more carefully!

Not Afraid, I thought I had explained earlier why the number now reads 1 million? Your two comments, put together, implies a disbelief in anything I write, if I'm reading them correctly. That's fine. I shall no longer count on your vote when I run for president. :)

RStar
01-22-2003, 10:00 AM
Originally posted by Ghoulish Delight
What he is trying to argue is that the total income with the current proliferation of APs is less than the total income would be in the hypothetical world where there were significantly fewer (or zero) APs.

But before I got my AP, I went once every two years and spent about $200 for myself and my wife (early 1980s). If I went know, due to price increase and two kids I would probably spend about $375-400. Right now our passes cost me (I forget what the delux costs, but the kids get them) around $700. So that is $1,400 for enty only in two years as compared to my bi-yearly $400. I spend on average $10-25 each time I go, or another $1,500 in two years. This is not counting any expensive collectible, like the Lenox peices we purchase. So as an AP I spend almost $3,000 compared to $400 I would in two years normally.

The question is, what percentage APs are like me, and how many get the SO.CAL., bring their own food, and never spend a dime while there?