Wilma...

[Syndrome]

Me and the wife have our big trip to WDW coming up. We'll be arriving on 10/22 and wouldn't you know it, tropical Storm/Hurricane Wilma is probably headed towards Florida this weekend. Does anybody in the Orlando area have a better idea of how severe it'll be? On the weather websites it just says "thunderstorms" for sat-sun., and then it's sunny the rest of the week.

I was hoping someone who lives in Orlando or Florida perhaps had a better idea of what the severity will be in the Orlando area.

I hope its not too bad, this is my first time going to WDW and I've been looking forward to it all year!

[Drince88]

I'm not in the Orlando area, but I can offer you this information.

The forecasts for this far out are VERY tentative. I did read the 5pm Eastern advisory today, and they thought it might be reach a Cat 3. I would look at the National Hurricane Center forecasts over the regular 'weather' because of how they do things. My favorite site is the official site: www.nhc.noaa.gov

That said, Orlando is in the 'middle' of the penninsula. That helps A LOT with the severity. Also, if it goes on the current projected path, Orlando will be on the 'dry' side of the storm. Dry is VERY relative, but it is a ray of hope, too.

There were some posts/threads after the couple that impacted the Orlando area last year that talked about what Disney did - you might want to go look those up and see what you would be in for, worst case. (And those two last year were VERY unusual in the impact they made in Orlando!)

I would watch the NHC site over the next couple of days, as it currently stands, Orlando should be ok. Also, the airlines are very conservative, if it looks like something is going to impact an airport, they stop their flights sooner rather than later, so if things look a little dicey as it gets closer to Saturday, make sure and check with your airline before you head to the airport. Personally, I wouldn't cancel anything unless they start calling for evacuations for Orlando.

And if you're staying more than a couple of days, the weather after a Hurricane blows through is often really nice.

[wishiwasthere]

I was there for Charley last year and we just had to stay in the room for about a day and a half. Riverside just happened to run out of food since people panicked and bought food by the bagful. So my parentals did a quick run to the supermarket and we got some foods to hold us over. Some of the property was damaged due to falling trees, but nothing severe. They played different movies on like 5 different channels throughout the day, and we played cards to keep us entertained.

[Syndrome]

Well, hopefully it doesn't impact Orlando too much. According to current projections, it would only impact one day of our trip. It looks like its going to be nice after the storm. We're there until 10/28, so hopefully this won't impact our trip too much. I just hope we don't see delays or cancellations in our flight.

[wishiwasthere]

It's not supposed to "hit" florida until around 2AM Sunday morning. But on Saturday you can start seeing the outskirts of it. I hope you get there okay!

[dsnyredhead]

We're supposed to arrive in Orlando on Saturday....

They're now saying it's a Category 5.

[chinamama]

Originally Posted by dsnyredhead

We're supposed to arrive in Orlando on Saturday....

They're now saying it's a Category 5.

Now its the strongest on record! With the lowest Barometric pressure

Check out http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp

Karl kept us all updated last year when Jeanne hit, you might want to look thru the messages @
http://mousepad.mouseplanet.com/show...ghlight=Jeanne

Lots of hyperlinks and explanations, these were emails going back and forth during the storm.

Little sis and Family were there staying on property, and has always said they would not evacuate, until Katrina hit.... Now she says they would probably go if it was above a 3.

[dsnyredhead]

Hi

Yeah, I was on the boards last year with Karl keeping us up to date. I hear he's rather busy these days so I doubt he'll be on as much as last year. Hopefully we'll get another weather guru out there helping to keep us up to date.

[XHarryB]

At this point it really is still a lot of wait and see. When exactly it makes it's turn to the right will determine where it hits in Florida. So far most estimates have it pretty far south, but the cone does carry up as far north as the Tampa Bay area. Unless it hits further north than currently expected, I would expect much beyond a bit of rain in the Orlando area. The good thing (if there is one) about it being so powerful this morning is that it was reached it's peak intensity. It can not physically sustain that power from now until it hits and as it gets closer to Florida, where the water is actually cooler than in the Carribean, it will weaken. I'm hoping it's gonna drop back down to about a 2 when it makes landfall, but that's a middle of the road estimate.

The way things look currently, my only concern for some of you seems to be the fact that you are arriving on Saturday. Depending on what happens there could be travel delays that day. On the bright side, after it passes (and it's supposed to do so very quickly) the weather is looking to be excellent. Our temps are currently forcast to drop significantly by monday with highs around 80 (we have yet to get out of the upper 80's thus far this year). Should make for a good week to be out and about at the parks.

Just keep an eye on things and play it by ear. It's still too soon for anyone to know exactly what's going to happen.

[Drince88]

Interesting thing with Wilma - although it's the lowest pressure on record, it's also (right now, at least) a very small diameter storm. This morning, when it was a Cat 5, it was only 30 miles diameter of hurricane force winds. That's small. I'm curious as to what it will do when it hits the cooler water in the Gulf. (THAT is a weird sentence to write - cooler and Gulf together!) Will it weaken in pressure and stay small (that's what I'm hoping for) or something else?

One thing they did mention (and listening to New Orleans radio, they mention hurricanes often) is that the weather feature that will cause that hard right turn in the forecasts is already in place, so the turn should occur, they just aren't sure when/where.

[karl]

Hi,

Yep, I have had a busy summer, followed by a bit of a vacation, and now busy again. But, I do take a peak at the weather discussions every now and then.

Wilma really bombed the other day, falling to the lowest Atlantic storm pressure ever recorded. And it did it with spectacular speed, breaking records for fastest drops in pressure, going from a nominal Cat 1 to a strong Cat 5 in twelve hours.

At this time, the hurricane is undergoing an Eye Replacement Cycle. During this time, the hurricane usually loses a bit of steam. It is likely to pick up again once the cycle has completed, perhaps back to a Cat 5. The storm may clip the Yucatan which would likely degrade the storm again. There is a good bit of warm water in the SE Gulf of Mexico to sustain it afterward.

Guidance. The storm has been a bit west of predicted, so this is a concern. Primarily, the guidance of this storm is based on timing. The jet stream is dropping down to 'meet' the hurricane and push it east. While most of the models today place landfall on the south end of Florida, the GFDL (a fairly reliable indicator) falls slightly north of the pack. The LBAR model takes landfall further north toward Tampa and Orlando. I dont know how reliable the LBAR has been.

Going forward, the factors to watch for are -

1) If the storm slows a bit or the jet doesnt dip at right moment, the guidance may be more north; if they connect at the right moment, the Keys are in danger. A few degrees in angle or a change in timing may be all the difference.

2) I will note that the further west or longer it takes for a move more northward, the tighter the easterly angle will need to be to meet current forecasts.

3) How well does the
recover after an Eye Replace Cycle. How close the storm gets to the Yucatan. What will the warm water after the Yucatan do?

How does this affect Orlando? Even if the storm doesnt make a direct hit (and its in window), do expect a stormy weekend with some intense outer bands that can extend hundreds of miles away from the center.

Here are some interesting links...

Sat History of Storm

Sea Surface Temps

The National Hurricane Center

-- Karl

[XHarryB]

Local forcasters are stressing the fact that it's all about the timing. One showed a model last evening which suggested the possiblities depending on the timing. They showed a proposed track for if it were to make it's turn to the east and hit the southern tip of florida, then suggested that if it made that same turn with the same angle of aproach, but the turn happened just 6 hours later than the first scenario it would be hitting the Tampa bay area. They did a similar comparison based on angle of approach and the difference that a 5 degree shift in angle would make to it's target.

As of this morning the whole scenario seems to have slowed a bit. landfall is now being projected for Sunday night into monday instead of Saturday into Sunday. I'm keeping my fingers crossed as I'm not real keen on having to take a hurricane day from school on Monday (we would have to make it up the first day of winter break!).... not to mention all the other terrible reasons why you don't want to get hit by a hurricane.

[cawheat]

We leave TOMORROW!!! We're driving down, probably staying in Mid-Georgia tomorrow night, where we'll monitor the latest.

I hope and pray that this storm doesn't do any significant damage in the Yucatan, Keys, or FL.

(Note to self: pack playing cards and games...)

[LeslieM]

Yay, Karl's back!!
Boo, (Wilma, go away!) reason Karl's back!

[efoxx]

wow as of right now we are in the worse case senario for us as our arrival time on monday morning is about landfall time in florida for wilma. it will very likely effect us getting to WDW now. and if SW cancells our flight I will be willing to bet it will be days before we get there

[wishiwasthere]

Originally Posted by efoxx

wow as of right now we are in the worse case senario for us as our arrival time on monday morning is about landfall time in florida for wilma. it will very likely effect us getting to WDW now. and if SW cancells our flight I will be willing to bet it will be days before we get there

Is there anyway that you change everything to a week later?

[karl]

Some of the computer models are shifting north toward the Tampa area. Most of the reliable models are setting up in the Naples / Ft. Myers zone at this time.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/wea...s/storm_24.gif

I hear the GFDL is also moving more north, but may not be reflected on the plot at time of this post.

On strength, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting strengthening back to 145 knots (160-165 mph) before Cozumel. That area is seriously in danger. How long the storm remains over land (if it does make landfall) will help determine its strength heading toward Florida.

The more northerly Gulf tracks may place the storm into shear conditions that would help weaken it before making a Florida landfall.

-- Karl

[KJSJpipe]

Fingers crossed! Hopefully it won't be too bad. Most of the week is supposed to be good but we are doing MNSSHP on Sunday 10-23.

[JeffG]

Originally Posted by KJSJpipe

Fingers crossed! Hopefully it won't be too bad. Most of the week is supposed to be good but we are doing MNSSHP on Sunday 10-23.

Have you considered calling and trying to change that to one of the other nights during your visit? While that type of change is normally not available, they tend to be rather accommodating under these circumstances. Most of the forecasts currently have late Sunday as the most likely time for the hurricane to come through.

We are currently scheduled for MNSSHP on Tuesday night and are really hoping the bad weather is past by then...

-Jeff

[jengold29]

Well as of the 5am reports (I'm in SoFL and a little worried) It's not due to hit until Monday night/Tuesday morning. The models also show it weakening due to its stall over the Yucutan.

Hope your trip goes smoothly.

[LeslieM]

Geez, I hope everybody's trip goes smoothly. More importantly, I hope Jengold, Summer, and everybody else in FL comes through it unscathed, or at least relatively so. Fingers crossed.

[pixiedust]

Got an email late yesterday from my Disney rep.

For check-ins today and tommorrow (I know the notice is late for some of you) Walt Disney Travel Company packages or room only reservations penalties will be waived for changes of booking dates or cancellations for those bookings made directly with Disney or by your travel agent with Disney, BUT moving reservation dates is subject to availability and possibly re-pricing. Of course any air penalty or charges or flight cancellations are separate and up to the airlines, but the Disney portion of the trip is covered by this.

Bookings made through other sources must go by that vendor's policies (i.e. Southwest Vacations, etc.)

Normal policies apply for checkins Sunday, 10/22, and beyond, but may change depending on the storm.

[karl]

Cancun Radar Loop

Press [FWD] to play after loading.

[karl]

Wilma plowed itself into Cozumel. Not good for those folks.

We'll see what condition Wilma is in once it finds water again. That will help set the Florida outlook.

-- Karl

[pixiedust]

Late day Disney updates from my sales rep:

Tomorrow's 7 day cruise will switch to Eastern Caribbean instead of Western.

Rebook/cancel policy I stated above now covers arrivals through Monday Oct. 24. Normal cancel policies for Oct. 25 and beyond check in dates.