Are Touring Plan's Crowd Estimators Accurate?

[Escape2Disney]

I just checked out Touring Plans, and a couple of days of our trip will be an 8 out of 10. Are they usually accurate? The rest of the trip is pretty mild (7 being the highest).

Should I be worried?

[Malcon10t]

I haven't found them accurate. Part of the problem, not everyone agrees on what is an 8 or 10 or 4. We were there on the same day as another MP poster. They rated that day as a 9 or 10. We rated that day as a 6 (a 9 and 10 to me would be Christmas week crowds.) How you rate the crowds really depends on what you are used to.

[Escape2Disney]

I haven't found them accurate. Part of the problem, not everyone agrees on what is an 8 or 10 or 4. We were there on the same day as another MP poster. They rated that day as a 9 or 10. We rated that day as a 6 (a 9 and 10 to me would be Christmas week crowds.) How you rate the crowds really depends on what you are used to.

Thanks, Malcon.

The crowd predictors are all over the board for our visit. [Mod note: paid content removed]

It seems a little arbitrary considering Tuesday is a 3 and Wednesday a 7!

Do you have any insight about these days? I checked last year's updates, and unfortunately the crowd predictors are missing for most dates.

Thanks!

[danyoung]

Umm, I'm not sure you should be sharing info from a site that requires payment to access their information.

[Escape2Disney]

Umm, I'm not sure you should be sharing info from a site that requires payment to access their information.

OOPS - didn't realize that'd be a problem.

Sorry if I offended or broke any rules...

[danyoung]

No worries - I've made the same mistake before.

[bumblebeeonarose]

They were showing the first week of April as a 4 or so during the week. Of course that was more than 30 days out, I think they might change them as it gets closer to the date and only subscribers can look. I have a feeling it will be more crowded than that as our pass is blocked out on the Sunday before and the Friday after, and usually the deluxes are only blocked on Saturdays and holidays. We are going expecting summer busy.

[ralfrick]

I've never heard the crowd calendar fully explained, even by the people that put it together. I do understand that it is based solely on wait times, and not how crowded it feels. I just looked up three attractions on their site without FP: HM, Nemo and MHorn. The wait difference between 7 and 8 on the calendar ranged from 0-4 minutes. So if it's a difference between a 2 or an 8, that will be significant. Between a 7 and 8, probably not noticeable. So the real question, I think, is are the wait times predicted on their "Lines" app accurate. The few times I've checked, they've been pretty close. Unfortunately, my reception in DL is usually so bad I haven't been able to check much. But the description for every attraction on their touringplans.com site has a chart showing the predicted wait times for that ride if it's a 1, 2, 3..... You can look at the individual attraction info without a subscription, I just did so without logging in to the site.

And, remember, DL is a pretty popular place. A slow day is still waaaaaay more people than most parks on an average day. Even if the crowd calendar is a one, the predicted wait for Midway Mania is still 30 minutes.

A bientot.

[CariBelle]

I love the touring plans website! I find their predictions to be accurate, but I've been there on a 3 day and a 10 day so I feel like I know what to expect from their numbers.

[danyoung]

It should also be noted that there are no guarantees with the plans. They're based on mathematical interpretations of past crowds, which is no guarantee that the current year will be the same. I've been looking at their site for the past couple of years to help me pick a vacation time, and they've been extremely helpful to me.

[Tink Lover]

I've never heard the crowd calendar fully explained, even by the people that put it together.

I have seen it explained, but now I'm not sure exactly where. It might have been in the Unofficial Guide book, which pretty much tells you everything you need to know (and more!) about the issues that can affect wait times. It might have been on the website years ago (they appear to be "dumbing down" the content there on this topic, I presume to make things "easier to understand" for normal people (i.e. those who are not Math geeks)).

My understanding is that the concept of rating is somewhat similar to the concept of "stanine". If you took all the days in the year, and measured the attendance every day, you could divide the days into ten buckets. 365 days / ten buckets = 37 days in each bucket.

The 37 days that had the lightest attendance would get a rating of 1.

The 37 days that had the heaviest attendance would get a rating of 10.

And so on, hopefully you get the idea. That's pretty much it. There is no intrinsic meaning to the number, it is a relative indicator of how busy the park will be compared to other days in the year. If total attendance this year is twice as much as it was last year, the days in the 1 category will be busier than the days in the 1 category were last year. So a 1 this year could "feel different" than a 1 did last year. But so will all the other numbers, and a 1 will likely still be the least crowded experience available to you in the park.

The number mostly represents past performance, so there is no guarantee that you'll have the same number again this year. But on the other hand, the odds are that if nothing significant has changed (like a convention happening or not happening, etc.) the odds are that seasonal patterns will repeat themselves.

Hope this makes sense. I don't work for the company, I don't know 100% how it works, I'm just trying to share what I learned to those who might find it helpful. If that's not you, feel free to ignore.

[bduff]

Of course that was more than 30 days out, I think they might change them as it gets closer to the date and only subscribers can look.

I commented on this in another thread, but as a recent observer of their crowd calendar for purposes of planning our trip in April, I can tell you they don't seem to do any type of real time updates to their estimates. From early January through today, their estimates for our dates (4/12 - 4/15) have remained exactly the same. I was under the impression that as new information became available, they would be constantly tinkering with their algorithms or something and tweak the estimates. Instead, it now appears to me that they crank through their estimates based on historical patterns, and then leave those estimates be even when new information becomes available that makes it apparent that historical patterns will not apply in the current year. Good example of this is for the mid-June opening of Cars Land. Attendance will be a 10 out of 10 on any measure around the opening, but the Crowd Calendar is currently predicting only moderate crowds. Probably true historically for June 15, not going to be true this year.

[3Princesses1Prince]

The biggest inaccuracy I've seen is saying spring break is to end March 30/31, and starting in April crowds will go from 10 to 4. Ummm Easter is april 8 and those first two weeks of April will be likely the busiest spring break weeks.

[Tink Lover]

I commented on this in another thread, but as a recent observer of their crowd calendar for purposes of planning our trip in April, I can tell you they don't seem to do any type of real time updates to their estimates. From early January through today, their estimates for our dates (4/12 - 4/15) have remained exactly the same.

FYI, I went to DL last May, and as part of that trip I noticed that the numbers changed within 30 to 60 days of the trip or so. Just because they didn't change for your trip, doesn't mean that they *never* revise the numbers. And if it makes you feel any better, the numbers went UP - meaning they thought the crowds would be higher than when we first scheduled the trip. Having the numbers stay the same is better than having them go up at the end, IMHO.

As I recall, for that trip Star Tours was about to re-open the next month, and there was some talk on MP about whether or not touringplans had factored that into their numbers. I believe the consensus was that they did not. I can understand your disappointment that touringplans doesn't cover the situation of grand openings of new enhancements at the park very well - the heart wants what it wants. But IMHO it would be very difficult to write an algorithm that would be able to account for that properly. touringplans is what it is, it does what it can do. Does it still cost $6 for around a year? I've been very happy using it, especially for the price, but I think I understand what it is and what it's limitations are.

[bumblebeeonarose]

The biggest inaccuracy I've seen is saying spring break is to end March 30/31, and starting in April crowds will go from 10 to 4. Ummm Easter is april 8 and those first two weeks of April will be likely the busiest spring break weeks.

This is the time we are visiting. I expect busy crowds. If it somehow isn't that busy, yeah us. But really, it's spring break!

[Tink Lover]

FYI ...

http://blog.touringplans.com/
Expected Crowd Impact Of The June 15 Opening Of Cars Land, Disney California Adventure
by Fred Hazelton on March 18, 2012

Usually at Disneyland Resort we prefer to wait for officially announced park hours before updating the Crowd Calendar. In this case, however, we are prepared to take a leap of faith and make the adjustments, ourselves, while we wait.

In summary:

• The Disney California Adventure Crowd Calendar does NOT currently reflect the impact of the new attractions and the expected changes to the summer schedule.
• We are currently working on an update that will incorporate the anticipated changes.
• We expect the Disney California Adventure crowd level index to be 10 from Friday, June 15, through the end of summer.

[bduff]

I can understand your disappointment that touringplans doesn't cover the situation of grand openings of new enhancements at the park very well - the heart wants what it wants.

Actually, I wasn't so much trying to vent disappointment, as to provide my opinion to others that the crowd calendar has more limitations than what one might expect if only reading the Touring Plans web site description of them. They are the ones who make it sound like these are refined and udpated weekly, when that is not the case. I agree that for only $6 the service has enough value to be worth it even with the limitations, but buyer beware.

[ralfrick]

My understanding is that the concept of rating is somewhat similar to the concept of "stanine". If you took all the days in the year, and measured the attendance every day, you could divide the days into ten buckets. 365 days / ten buckets = 37 days in each bucket.

Yeah, I have seen that one as well. And that would mean 37 1s, 37 2s, etc. in a year, but I don't think it figures out like that. I just looked up 2011 on their site to see how many days there were rated 5. Should've been 37, but were only 29. This next one may be a bad example since Carsland opening is an unusual occurrence, but as just noted, they've revised every summer day at DCA to a 10, even though that is more than 37 days.

And I've read the UoGs and even heard many of those folks on the wdwtoday podcast, and their explanations still don't quite clear it up. I've also noticed that many subscribers on their chat simply don't trust the information on the calendar, or there wouldn't be so many questions about their accuracy. Or maybe that is also a failure to clearly communicate what these numbers mean.

They definitely revise the numbers though, and you can be alerted when this happens by putting your trip dates into their crowd tracker. At least 5 of the 8 days I've been to DL this year had the number revised.

A bientot.

[kazbar]

This is in the comments section on the Touring Plans blog page concerning the impact of cars Lands opening ...


"I have been wondering about this for some time. How is that statistically accurate/honest? If your 1-10 system is based on percentiles over a 365 day year, then you CANNOT have more than 36 days of 10′s. You also must have 36 days of 1′s. If you are projecting 60+ days (6/15-8/15?) of 10′s, then the percentiles are statistically meaningless."

"The crowd calendar is based on percentiles from all days of wait times since 2006, not in a 365 day period. So, if the set of days in the summer end up being the busiest since 2006, they may all be a 10 without violating the methodology.

Just out of curiosity Jim, we get that statement a lot from people but I have not been able to find anywhere where we state that the calendar is based on a 365 day period. Do you recall where you read or heard that?"

[Tink Lover]

FYI ...

http://blog.touringplans.com/2010/05...-calendar-2-0/

Imagine you have a box of 100 marbles of different sizes. If you sort the marbles from smallest to largest you can divide them into ten groups of ten, according to size. The largest ten marbles get put into Group Ten. The next ten largest get put into Group Nine, etc.

In our case, we are sorting all the possible crowd sizes at Walt Disney World into ten groups. The highest ten percent get a rank of ten; the next highest ten percent get a rank of nine, etc.

There is a lot more on the page, it appears to have all the gory details.

[ralfrick]

This is in the comments section on the Touring Plans blog page concerning the impact of cars Lands opening ...


"I have been wondering about this for some time. How is that statistically accurate/honest? If your 1-10 system is based on percentiles over a 365 day year, then you CANNOT have more than 36 days of 10′s. You also must have 36 days of 1′s. If you are projecting 60+ days (6/15-8/15?) of 10′s, then the percentiles are statistically meaningless."

"The crowd calendar is based on percentiles from all days of wait times since 2006, not in a 365 day period. So, if the set of days in the summer end up being the busiest since 2006, they may all be a 10 without violating the methodology.

Just out of curiosity Jim, we get that statement a lot from people but I have not been able to find anywhere where we state that the calendar is based on a 365 day period. Do you recall where you read or heard that?"

I haven't been able to find anywhere on their site or book that mentions this 2006 concept either. I got the impression it was based on 365 days from explanations I've heard on the wdwtoday podcast from either Len Testa or Henry Work (since Fred Hazelton wrote the above, I guess it wasn't him). Whether that's what they intended doesn't change the fact that the impression people are getting are that it's based on a single year.

A bientot.

[jsilkey]

I have always found them to be accurate....especially to get a feel of when to go. The peak times and slow times don't really change that much from year to year. Of course, this summer will be busier. Back to the OP's question - if it says it will be busy, I would plan accordingly, maybe even try Ridemax or a Touring Plan.