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potzbie
07-08-2006, 09:04 PM
For those who care about dollars.

Someone at ROTTEN TOMATOES compiled a prediction list of the box office for Dead Man's Chest ("DMC"), to wit:

******
Predictions for the U.S Opening Weekend:

boxofficemojo - $116.9million
boxofficeprophets - $119
boxofficeguru - $104
boxofficereport.com - $120
the-numbers - $110
moviemarshal - $90
*******

I am not surprised because:

1. No other movie opened this weekend, per my informal perusal of the ads in the newspaper for movies.

2. The number of theaters participating in the opening is the 3rd highest quantity in history, behend SHREK 2 and another movie I forgot, (but both were in 2002).

• If DISNEY (Buena Vista?) is the only studio who is opening a movie this weekend, then the box office will be higher than other weekends would have been.

• If DISNEY is utilizing more theaters than any movie since 2002, then its box office dollars will be higher than other movies.

Which is my way of saying that, if DISNEY had opened in JUNE or AUGUST, and had opened in as many theaters as, say, CARS, then the box office numbers would be significantly different.

Like I had said in an earlier post, there is a LOYALTY factor.
The opening weekend for the "leading edge movie goer" (who must be first to see whatever it is that the movie goer is fashionably determined to beat to the screen) will always be high.
The All-Things-Disney fan who will see a Disney film BECAUSE the word "Disney" is affliated with the film will boost the box office dollars.

The true test comes next weekend, when the full brunt of WORD OF MOUTH hits all streets.

****
For the record, I liked POTC DMC.
I laughed (at the appropriate scenes).
I oohed-and-ahhed, at the appropriate CGI scenes.

But I also recognize that some people need their movies to have things like:
(a.) plot
(b.) character development
(c.) dramatic conflict

For such people, DMC will not cut the mustard.
*****
Syllogism:

• Action/Adventure films cannot be 5 or 6 hours long.
• POTC DMC is an Action/Adventure film.
• Therefore, its LENGTH is a key factor in its likability factor.

Thus, another reason for poor reviews.

You cannot have a movie with 100% chase scenes.
That is why the LORD OF THE RINGS #2 (middle) movie got one Thumbs Down from the Ebert-Roeper duo. (And from me!)
DMC is almost all action.
You can have too much action in an action film.
Some plot points MUST be allowed to develop.

So, again, I am not surprised by the negative reviews, since reviewers won't like a film if the film fails in 3 or 4 key areas of filmdom standards.
*****
I liked POTC DMC.

But yes, it was too much action, and too little character interaction.
Yes, the plot holes are big enough to sail the Black Pearl through.
Yes, it was a string of action scenes, not strung together with any cohesion.--It would have failed a Screenwriters 101 course.

But I thought:
(a.) shooting an undead monkey is a great bit.
(b.) running while leaning backwards is a great comedy schtick.
(c.) having the Flying Dutchman be able to sail underwater is a nice mythological touch.
(d.) the 3-way sword fight in the mill water wheel was fantastic.

DMC was a visual treat.
But its screenplay, and its direction (really its editing), interfered with my enjoyment of those many excellent scenes.

*****

Osky
07-09-2006, 09:15 AM
Box Office Mojo now has $132 million as the tentative total for the weekend:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

That would blow away the all-time opening weekend total of $114.8 million set by Spider-Man in 2002.

tod
07-09-2006, 09:33 AM
$125 million.

Or at least that's what Disney will claim. :rolleyes:

:D

--t

Disney Vault
07-09-2006, 10:19 AM
Box Office Mojo now has $132 million as the tentative total for the weekend:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

That would blow away the all-time opening weekend total of $114.8 million set by Spider-Man in 2002.
Wow that did a lot better than I expected. We still have to wait until Tuesday to get the actually numbers though.

potzbie
07-10-2006, 12:44 AM
The late news on television Sunday night, locally (Los Angeles) had an update.

The Friday opening did beat Spiderman.

The projected weekend will likewise beat Spiderman.

The figure they cited for the whole weekend (F, S, S) was "$132 M".

We'll have to wait until Tuesday, of course, to find out for sure.
But the projections are mathematically consistent, in general, for the industry.
And this movie was pretty "normal" in terms of Disney product.
(i.e., no super weird news; no unusual publicity stunts except what Disney has done before, etc.)

"... $132 million ..."

I am sticking to my guns.
I still say, the opening weekend was bound to be good.
I predict a very significant drop off in the second weekend.
My crystal ball says that the word-of-mouth will get out by then.

Still, I did not foresee this "sequel" (!) as doing that well.
How many sequels are as good as the first one in the series?

Few movies break $100 M in their opening weekend.

My crystal ball is lying down, after taking a bruising on this one.
:(

Disney Vault
07-10-2006, 09:16 AM
The late news on television Sunday night, locally (Los Angeles) had an update.

The Friday opening did beat Spiderman.

The projected weekend will likewise beat Spiderman.

The figure they cited for the whole weekend (F, S, S) was "$132 M".

We'll have to wait until Tuesday, of course, to find out for sure.
But the projections are mathematically consistent, in general, for the industry.
And this movie was pretty "normal" in terms of Disney product.
(i.e., no super weird news; no unusual publicity stunts except what Disney has done before, etc.)

"... $132 million ..."

I am sticking to my guns.
I still say, the opening weekend was bound to be good.
I predict a very significant drop off in the second weekend.
My crystal ball says that the word-of-mouth will get out by then.

Still, I did not foresee this "sequel" (!) as doing that well.
How many sequels are as good as the first one in the series?

Few movies break $100 M in their opening weekend.

My crystal ball is lying down, after taking a bruising on this one.
:(
A significant drop has to happen. They can't keep a number that high. I am sure the second week for spiderman (the old record holder) significantly dropped its second weekend too. It doesn't have to mean the movie got bad word of mouth though.

Osky
07-10-2006, 04:20 PM
A significant drop has to happen. They can't keep a number that high. I am sure the second week for spiderman (the old record holder) significantly dropped its second weekend too. It doesn't have to mean the movie got bad word of mouth though.

Spiderman 2's first weekend was $115,817,364
Spiderman 2's second weekend was $45,180,743

Disney Vault
07-10-2006, 04:53 PM
Spiderman 2's first weekend was $115,817,364
Spiderman 2's second weekend was $45,180,743
Thanks you for finding that. I think everyone would consider that a significant drop;)

potzbie
07-10-2006, 08:36 PM
A minor distinction.

The figure quoted ($132 M) from the Los Angeles Times had said that this figure includes CANADA.

So, if we were to measure "domestic" opening weekends, "Spidy" might come through and stab Capt. Jack right through the chest into the beating heart (of Davy Jones).

The door is open for a new spin on the dollars.

(Now, THAT is a mixed metaphor!)

Osky
07-11-2006, 05:24 AM
Actual amounts for the weekend:

Domestic: $135,634,554
Foreign: $46,636,000
Total: $182,270,554

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=piratesofthecaribbean2.htm

Osky
07-11-2006, 05:29 AM
A minor distinction.

The figure quoted ($132 M) from the Los Angeles Times had said that this figure includes CANADA.
US Domestic Totals always include Canada. Spiderman 2's domestic opening included Canada as well.

Disney Vault
07-11-2006, 12:25 PM
Actual amounts for the weekend:

Domestic: $135,634,554
Foreign: $46,636,000
Total: $182,270,554

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=piratesofthecaribbean2.htm
Wow 135 million is just crazy. I was expecting it to maybe go down a couple million not up from the estimates.

Osky
07-11-2006, 03:06 PM
Wow 135 million is just crazy. I was expecting it to maybe go down a couple million not up from the estimates.

What is truly crazy is that it did not go down as far as expected for Monday. Monday's number is $18,140,271.

newhdplayer
07-11-2006, 08:46 PM
Good job on the miles, BTW.

Osky
07-12-2006, 07:51 AM
Good job on the miles, BTW.

Thanks. I'm just getting into it. I have a long way to go to match the pace of TrekkieDad (3856 miles this year). Anyway, if you are interested, that discussion is here:

http://mousepad.mouseplanet.com/showthread.php?t=58161

Yesterday's box office figures have not been released yet. I will add them when I see them, unless someone else beats me to it.

Osky
07-12-2006, 01:03 PM
$15,731,919 for Tuesday. Still going strong mid-week.

Total Domestic US & Canada is now $169,506,744

Disney Vault
07-12-2006, 01:54 PM
$15,731,919 for Tuesday. Still going strong mid-week.

Total Domestic US & Canada is now $169,506,744
Most movies are lucky to even make that much in their opening weekend. Glad the movie is still going strong.

Osky
07-13-2006, 11:46 AM
$14,154,725 for Wednesday, which brings the domestic total to $183,661,469.

Throw in the foreign weekend total of $46,636,000, and the total take is $230,297,469. That means that as of Wednesday, PotC 2 has already surpassed the Production Budget ($225 million). Obviously, this is an important milestone for the movie. Since foreign numbers are only updated on the weekends (at least from what I can tell), it is possible that it surpassed the production budget on Tuesday.

PotC 2 is currently at :

#85 all-time domestic
#242 all-time worldwide

Disney Vault
07-13-2006, 01:07 PM
$14,154,725 for Wednesday, which brings the domestic total to $183,661,469.

Throw in the foreign weekend total of $46,636,000, and the total take is $230,297,469. That means that as of Wednesday, PotC 2 has already surpassed the Production Budget ($225 million). Obviously, this is an important milestone for the movie. Since foreign numbers are only updated on the weekends (at least from what I can tell), it is possible that it surpassed the production budget on Tuesday.

PotC 2 is currently at :

#85 all-time domestic
#242 all-time worldwide
Where did you find this? I would love to know what PotC CotBP was in terms of # all time domestic and all time worldwide.

Osky
07-13-2006, 02:24 PM
Where did you find this? I would love to know what PotC CotBP was in terms of # all time domestic and all time worldwide.

Most everything can be found on www.imdb.com and www.boxofficemojo.com

PotC CotBP
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=piratesofthecaribbean.htm

Domestic: $305,413,918
Foreign: $348,500,000
Total: $653,913,918

#21 all-time domestic
#25 all-time worldwide

Disney Vault
07-13-2006, 09:14 PM
Most everything can be found on www.imdb.com and www.boxofficemojo.com

PotC CotBP
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=piratesofthecaribbean.htm

Domestic: $305,413,918
Foreign: $348,500,000
Total: $653,913,918

#21 all-time domestic
#25 all-time worldwide
Thank you:)

Osky
07-19-2006, 11:45 AM
PotC 2 is currently at :

#85 all-time domestic
#242 all-time worldwide

In case anyone is interested...

As of 7/18/2006 PotC 2 is currently at :
#29 all-time domestic
#80 all-time worldwide
Domestic: $273,767,461
+ Foreign: $124,000,000
= Worldwide: $397,767,461

Also keep in mind that it has only been released in about 34% of the foreign market. Some of the larger markets are still yet to be released, such as Japan (July 22), Germany (July 27) and France (Aug. 2).

Disney Vault
07-19-2006, 04:28 PM
In case anyone is interested...

As of 7/18/2006 PotC 2 is currently at :
#29 all-time domestic
#80 all-time worldwide
Domestic: $273,767,461
+ Foreign: $124,000,000
= Worldwide: $397,767,461

Also keep in mind that it has only been released in about 34% of the foreign market. Some of the larger markets are still yet to be released, such as Japan (July 22), Germany (July 27) and France (Aug. 2).
This is so exciting to me.