Mine is 4%, big win for Eisner.

I skim the Disney message areas of CBS Marketwatch.com and Motley Fools. These are in fact Disney shareholders discussing matters, and I rarely see a pro-administration post (it does happen, though). Motley Fools seem anti-Eisner right now, but can cite stock market information for taking that position. So my guess....hmmmmm.....Count me in.... I'll go low ball and very very conservative, and my guess is among the subset of retail investors (the individual investor, not institutions) Roy Disney and Stanley Gold will get the 20% they are looking for. The ISS recommending "no" votes to institutional investors, that does sound important and persuasive, but I cannot predict how that part of it will go since I know so little about it.

If the atmosphere seems to change can we change our bets? What do we win on March 3rd and 4th when the votes come in and one of us is closest? ;)

Pointing out this article from Smart Money, in which an interview with two analysts discusses the Comcast deal and the possibility of Michael Eisner's departure due to shareholder pressure. The analysts have a figure from somewhere that "35%" of the shareholders (unnamed) are likely to vote "no". See what you think.... URL:

http://www.smartmoney.com/theproshop/index.cfm?story=20040220

I'm sticking to my previous answer up above, to be conservative about all this.

More important is the number of shares. Not shareholders. There are 2 billion shares outstanding.
Lots of mutual funds, in which the mutual fundholders do not have a say. The mutual fund makes the decision, and it will decide what's in the best interest of its fundholders.

OK, a prediction: 18%.

Are we doing this "Price is Right" style, where the person who gets closest w/out going over? Because I like sediment's number, but I'll take 15%

Carol: just read the article you linked. Love this: (bolding mine)

SM: Do you think shareholders might actually oust Eisner on March 3?

SF: You've got 35% of the shareholder vote against him right now between Stanley Gold and Roy Disney. Those two will continue to lobby aggressively up to March 3 in terms of Eisner's position. I think that Disney and Gold would be perfectly happy just to get rid of Eisner — I don't think they want the company sold. And without Eisner, there might be some real upside in Disney's price. One of the things I often worry about is when a chief executive gets on a tear about something personal. Eisner has not been paying as much attention to Disney as he has to his own personal prides and prejudices for the last four or five years.


These guys are hardly amateurs in the market... if they see it, so do many others with a fiscal interest in doing so.

how do Roy and Stan have 35%? I know there is some "sold but kept voting rights" deal, but 35%? They're big owners, but not that big. They could have done something way before this.
Roy has 16 million shares. That's 0.8%.

I agree with Morrigoon.....15% sounds like a winner to me.

Of course, the higher it actually is, the better! :D

(and I will take the Showcase Showdown with the car in it! :p)

-Demigod

Originally posted by sediment
how do Roy and Stan have 35%? I know there is some "sold but kept voting rights" deal, but 35%? They're big owners, but not that big. They could have done something way before this.
Roy has 16 million shares. That's 0.8%.

Yes, that's a bid number, but it's possible that during the roadshow that Roy and Stan did (are doing), they may have that much in commitments from large investors. 35% is still quite big, though.

My vote will be 30%, but I'm hoping it's way more than that.

Originally posted by sediment
how do Roy and Stan have 35%? I know there is some "sold but kept voting rights" deal, but 35%? They're big owners, but not that big. They could have done something way before this.
Roy has 16 million shares. That's 0.8%.

I think the article was estimating that they had 35% of the shareholders leaning towards voting their recommendation at this point. Sounds a bit high to me, but the authors of the article are more expert at this than I am by far...

-Jeff

If that's true, then they've done some good work on the bigger investors.

With CalPers pulling support for Eisner, that is a HUGE black eye for him, and could very well start the stampede for the exits. See here (http://mousepad.mouseplanet.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=25675). I think 25-30% is actually achievable now.

Hang on to your hats and glasses - this here's going to be the wildest ride on Wall Street!

How much money would it take (from shareholders, in reality) to get rid of Eisner?
Ironically, his options will increase in value as soon as he announces his resignation.

Originally posted by Tony
With CalPers pulling support for Eisner, that is a HUGE black eye for him, and could very well start the stampede for the exits. See here (http://mousepad.mouseplanet.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=25675). I think 25-30% is actually achievable now.

Hang on to your hats and glasses - this here's going to be the wildest ride on Wall Street!

When I first read this, I would have put in a guess at around 28%. With the news of CalPers voting against Eisner, I am going to bump it up to at least 35%. This will have a snowball effect; the more the institutional shareholders expressing concerns about corporate leadership in such a public fashion, the more others will get nervous.
Right now my mom-in-law is on the phone with Wa. State Retirement Investment Board to ascertain what her money is invested in. It is really difficult to get a straight answer, but we're sticking with it, and if it's in the WDC, we will request a no vote from the fund manager.

Whoohoo! They are invested in both the WDC and Comcast; I asked the investment rep if they had shares in the WDC and she volunteered that not only did they have shares there, but also in Comcast....(Which means they are aware of what is going on). She told me who to get a hold of, so I'm going there right now to see what we can do.:)

It probably has an investment portfolio consisting of S&P 500, minus some questionable socially unacceptable companies. Don't be surprised that it is invested in Comcast.

Oh, I wasn't surprised- just a bit surprised that the investment rep I spoke with mentioned it... They are invested in the Wilshire 5000, which is in turn administered by BGI. I have the proxy rep calling tomorrow, but am sending the info on to SaveDisney. It's just amazing how difficult it is to find out how your retirement funds are invested in this state!:|

Attention Kmart Shoppers: Coup in progress. Please vote NO at the beep.

'BEEEEEEEEEP!'

-Demigod
(I'm upping my guess to 23%)

Okay, I am upping to 14%.

hmmmm...19.5%

Originally posted by Dlandmom
Yes, that's a bid number, but it's possible that during the roadshow that Roy and Stan did (are doing), they may have that much in commitments from large investors. 35% is still quite big, though.

My vote will be 30%, but I'm hoping it's way more than that.

ISS, CALPERS, and Glass, Lewis?! I think 35% is definitely achievable. I can't wait for the final results. I'm bumping my guess to 35% or MORE.

I'm voting NO for sure. Can we write Roy Disney and Stanley Gold in? I'm voting NO for EVERYONE and everyone should do the same.

I'm going to "hold" at 20% of retail (individual) investors and unknown for institutional shareholders at least for the next couple of days. That the New York State Comptroller announced a "withhold" on Michael Eisner and that Michael Eisner today is in Ohio pitching to their state retirement fund....it sounds like dominoes are falling or more could fall. In "wait and see" mode for additional news.

This is fun, kinda like those World Tour of Poker TV shows on cable.

I just posted this at another thread, but you can count Wa State Retirement Sytems in on Roy's side.:cool:

What kind of percentage do we need for him to go buh bye?